A recent report has revealed a significant decline in the number of Indian students applying to UK universities, compounding financial concerns for higher education institutions already grappling with tight budgets. The analysis, published by the Office for Students (OfS), highlights a worrying trend that could have long-term consequences for the UK’s higher education sector.
Sharp decline in indian students
Using data from the UK Home Office on Confirmation of Acceptance for Studies (CAS) issued by UK universities between 2022-23 and 2023-24, the OfS report shows a 20.4% drop in Indian student numbers. The figure has fallen from 139,914 to 111,329, marking a substantial decrease in one of the UK’s most significant international student markets.
The decline is part of a broader trend, with the total number of CAS issued to international students falling by 11.8%. Nigerian students experienced an even sharper decline, with a 44.6% drop in CAS issued.
“Universities with financial models heavily reliant on students from India, Nigeria, and Bangladesh are likely to be significantly affected by this trend,” the report warns. By 2025-26, without substantial interventions, the sector could face a net income reduction of £3.445 billion, with up to 72% of providers operating in deficit and 40% experiencing low liquidity.
Key factors driving the decline
Indian student organisations in the UK have attributed the drop to several factors, including limited job prospects, safety concerns, and restrictive immigration policies. Recent anti-immigration riots in certain UK cities have also deterred prospective students.
Amit Tiwari, President of the Indian National Students’ Association (INSA) UK, highlighted the government’s recent decision to restrict foreign students from bringing dependent partners or spouses as a critical factor. “The new policy has made studying in the UK less attractive. Coupled with economic challenges and reports of unrest, this decline is not surprising,” Tiwari said.
Impact of policy changes
In recent years, Indian students have surpassed Chinese nationals as the leading recipients of UK study visas. They also form the largest group accessing the Graduate Route post-study work visa. However, changes to immigration policies, including a review of the Graduate Route visa and increased skilled worker salary thresholds, have created confusion and uncertainty among prospective applicants.
Sanam Arora, Chair of the National Indian Students and Alumni Union (NISAU) UK, criticised the government’s lack of clarity. “The Conservative ban on dependents, confusion around post-study work visas, and an apparent lack of employment opportunities have all contributed to this decline,” she said.
Safety and misinformation concerns
For the first time, safety has emerged as a prominent issue. “We are seeing concerns over safety being raised more than ever before,” Arora noted. This, combined with misinformation about visa rules and job prospects, has amplified the challenges facing UK universities.
Arora called on universities to take a more proactive approach. “Institutions need to communicate the UK’s offer clearly and at scale in India. They must also invest significantly in employability support to remain competitive and offer a comprehensive, outcome-oriented experience for students.”
Financial implications for UK universities
The OfS report cautioned that universities heavily reliant on international students, particularly from India, face significant financial risks. Many institutions have come to depend on the higher tuition fees paid by non-UK students, making this decline particularly troubling.
Without meaningful changes, the financial stability of the sector could be severely compromised. The report estimates a sector-wide deficit of £1.636 billion by 2025-26, underscoring the urgent need for intervention.
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Calls for action
Indian student groups and higher education advocates have urged the UK government to address the issues affecting international student recruitment. Key recommendations include:
- Policy Clarity: Greater transparency around visa and post-study work policies.
- Safety Measures: Improved efforts to reassure students about safety concerns.
- Employment Support: Enhanced employability initiatives to help students transition to the UK workforce.
- Better Communication: Universities must actively dispel misinformation and highlight the benefits of studying in the UK.
A Bleak outlook without intervention
The decline in Indian student numbers comes at a critical juncture for UK higher education, with institutions facing constrained budgets and increased competition from other countries such as Canada and Australia. Without addressing the underlying issues, the outlook for the sector could remain bleak.
As Arora put it: “The UK must reimagine its offer to Indian students to stay competitive. Otherwise, we risk losing a vital part of our international education ecosystem.”
The next steps will require coordinated action from universities, student organisations, and the government to restore confidence in the UK as a destination for higher education.
