Votes are being tallied across England in a pivotal round of local and parliamentary by-elections that could spell fresh trouble for both Labour and the Conservatives, as Nigel Farage’s Reform UK seeks to capitalise on growing public disillusionment with the two-party system.
Labour, led by Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, is facing a serious threat in Runcorn and Helsby – a seat it previously held with a commanding majority. Reform UK is eyeing this constituency as a potential breakthrough, with Sarah Pochin, its candidate, tipped by bookmakers to win what was once seen as a safe Labour stronghold. The by-election was triggered by the resignation of former MP Mike Amesbury, who stepped down after admitting to punching a constituent. In 2024, Amesbury had secured 53% of the vote, winning by a margin of nearly 14,700. However, a turnout of just 46.33% this time – with 32,740 ballots cast – has left the race wide open.
Nigel Farage, returning to front-line politics with a renewed sense of purpose, has declared Reform’s intention to “smash the two-party system”, claiming that both Labour and the Conservatives are more fearful of Thursday night’s results than his own party. Early indications appear to support his bold assertion, with Reform showing early signs of progress, particularly in Northumberland – the only council conducting a full overnight count.
Reform’s deputy leader, Richard Tice, said the party was “absolutely smashing it” in Tory-held areas such as Lincolnshire. Former Conservative minister Dame Andrea Jenkyns is reportedly on track to win the regional mayoralty there – now under the Reform UK banner. Tice described the Runcorn and Helsby contest as “nip-and-tuck”, a telling sign of Reform’s rising fortunes in traditionally secure Labour territory.
Meanwhile, the Conservatives, under new leader Kemi Badenoch, are bracing for a grim night. With over 1,600 council seats up for grabs in 23 local authorities, early predictions suggest significant Tory losses. Frontbencher Helen Whately admitted the party was likely to suffer a “real battering”, describing the 2021 local elections – held at the peak of Boris Johnson’s popularity – as a “high watermark” for the party.
Labour chairwoman Ellie Reeves acknowledged that the contests would be “a challenge”, especially in long-standing Conservative areas. While she said voters had not yet fully felt the benefit of the changes brought in by the Labour government since 2024, she remained confident in the government’s long-term vision. “However the results turn out this evening,” Reeves said, “this Labour government will go further and faster in turning our country around and giving Britain the future it deserves.”
Despite the potential upset in Runcorn and Helsby, Labour did find some comfort in holding onto the North Tyneside mayoralty – albeit with a sharply reduced majority of just 444 votes, with Reform coming in second.
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Sir Ed Davey, leader of the Liberal Democrats, believes his party is poised to benefit from Conservative collapse, particularly in traditional Middle England. “We are expecting to see big gains against the Conservatives in their former heartlands,” he said, warning of a ballot box “reckoning” for Badenoch’s leadership.
The Green Party, too, is optimistic. Co-leader Carla Denyer highlighted gains from both major parties as evidence of a shifting political landscape. “Voters are moving away from the tired old parties that have let us all down,” she said, as Greens look to increase their local government representation.
As results continue to come in, the overall picture remains fluid – but one message is already clear: discontent with the status quo is fuelling a dramatic reshaping of British politics. Reform UK, once dismissed as a fringe movement, is now positioning itself as a major disruptor in an increasingly fragmented political system.
