A much-touted rise in hospital appointments hailed as a “massive increase” by the government is, in fact, smaller than the rise seen the year before, according to newly released data obtained by fact-checking organisation Full Fact.
The figures—secured under the Freedom of Information Act—shed light on a key Labour election pledge to deliver “an extra two million appointments” in England’s NHS. While Health Secretary Wes Streeting recently championed a rise of 3.6 million appointments in eight months as a significant achievement, the data now reveals that the same category of appointments had risen by 4.2 million in the equivalent period the previous year.
The revelation raises questions about how the pledge has been measured, and whether the touted increase truly reflects an exceptional gain or simply continues an existing trend. “We were repeatedly told by government officials that they were delivering on their promise, but we couldn’t find a clear definition of what was being measured—or how,” said a Full Fact spokesperson.
NHS England only published the relevant data in February, months after Labour took office, but the lack of historical context made it difficult to assess whether the 3.6 million figure represented a genuine leap or simply a continuation of routine year-on-year increases. Full Fact’s FOI request has now confirmed that these kinds of hospital activities—operations, scans and appointments—have been growing steadily since at least 2018.
When the data is adjusted for the number of working days in each month (a method used by NHS statisticians), the 3.6 million rise under Labour amounts to a 7.7% increase over the equivalent eight-month period. But that follows increases of 10.1% and 8% in the two years prior. In context, the government’s touted rise is in fact the smallest in recent years, barring the pandemic period.
Nevil Hopley, a Statistical Ambassador for the Royal Statistical Society, verified Full Fact’s calculations. He noted that “it’s crucial that any political claims about improvements in healthcare are rooted in transparent, publicly accessible data so the public can assess them fairly.”
Experts at the Institute for Fiscal Studies echoed this view. “We said at the time the target was announced that it was not especially ambitious,” a spokesperson told Full Fact. “Two million additional appointments sounds impressive in isolation, but the NHS treats hundreds of millions each year. Recent growth in this area has consistently exceeded two million.”
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Despite the criticism, the Department of Health and Social Care defended its record. A spokesperson said the new government inherited forecasts that suggested elective appointments would need to be reduced by 20,000 a week due to financial constraints. “Instead, this government provided the investment necessary to increase appointments, delivering over three million more than expected—far surpassing the original pledge.”
Still, the fact that it took an FOI request to obtain this context has sparked calls for greater transparency in the reporting of government targets. “Politicians must be clear about what they are promising and how success is being measured,” Full Fact said in its statement. “Otherwise, the public is left in the dark about what achievements are genuinely new and what would have happened anyway.”
As the Labour government continues to cite its progress on NHS activity as a central part of its first-year success story, the data shows that what was framed as a major turnaround may, in fact, be part of a broader and longer-term trend—one that predates its tenure in office.
