Pakistan’s leading water regulator has warned of a severe water shortage, cautioning that up to 35 per cent less water will be available for crops this season due to declining reserves in the country’s two main reservoirs.
The warning comes at a critical time for farmers, as wheat—a staple food crop—enters a crucial growth stage that requires sufficient water to ensure a healthy yield.
The Indus River System Authority (Irsa) on Friday alerted the two largest agricultural provinces, Punjab and Sindh, to prepare for significant water shortages as the Tarbela and Mangla dams approach their dead levels. These two reservoirs play a crucial role in irrigation, and their depletion could have serious consequences for the country’s food security and agricultural economy.
Reservoirs nearing dead levels
According to a report published in Dawn, Irsa issued an official notification to the irrigation secretaries of all four provinces, informing them that both Tarbela and Mangla dams were close to running dry.
“There is the likelihood that Punjab and Sindh may face a shortfall of 30-35 per cent while operating the reservoirs on a run-of-the-river mode at or around dead levels,” stated Irsa’s Director of Regulation, Khalid Idrees Rana.
The latest data from Irsa shows that Tarbela Dam currently holds only 73,000 acre-feet of water, with its level recorded at 1,409 feet, just nine feet above its dead level of 1,400 feet. Given that its maximum storage level is 1,550 feet, the reservoir is nearing depletion at an alarming rate.
Similarly, Mangla Dam has 235,000 acre-feet of live storage, standing at 1,088 feet, only 28 feet above its dead level of 1,060 feet. With a maximum conservation level of 1,242 feet, its water levels are also falling dangerously fast.
On Friday, Tarbela was receiving 17,000 cusecs of inflow but releasing 20,000 cusecs, while Mangla had an inflow of 16,400 cusecs against an outflow of 18,000 cusecs. This pattern indicates a continued decline in storage levels, reinforcing fears of an imminent crisis.
Impact on wheat crop and agriculture
Irsa had already predicted this crisis at the beginning of the Rabi season on 2nd October 2024. At the time, it had estimated that both reservoirs would reach dead levels within the first ten days of March 2025—a prediction that now appears to be coming true.
While depletion of reservoirs to dead levels is a regular occurrence, typically happening twice a year, the timing of this shortage is particularly concerning. Wheat cultivation has already been affected by government policy changes, leading to lower-than-targeted sowing this season. Now, with less water available for irrigation, farmers face significant challenges in ensuring a successful harvest.
A glimmer of hope: Recent rainfall
Despite the bleak situation, Irsa acknowledged that recent rainfall has had a positive impact on standing crops.
“Fortunately, the recent rain spell contributed positively to the Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS), and currently, supplies close to the indents are being released for the provinces, keeping in view the accounted-for water shortages,” Irsa reported.
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The rainfall has provided temporary relief, but experts warn that reliance on unpredictable weather patterns is not a long-term solution.
Agriculture: The backbone of Pakistan’s economy
The agricultural sector is the largest contributor to Pakistan’s economy, making up about 24 per cent of the GDP and employing half of the country’s labour force. It is also Pakistan’s largest source of foreign exchange earnings and supports both rural and urban populations.
Any significant disruption in water supply directly affects food security, rural livelihoods, and overall economic stability. The wheat crop is particularly vital, as Pakistan’s population depends heavily on it as a staple food source.
Looking ahead: What can be done?
Experts suggest that Pakistan must prioritise long-term water management strategies, including:
- Upgrading irrigation systems to reduce water wastage.
- Building additional reservoirs to improve water storage capacity.
- Promoting water-efficient farming techniques such as drip irrigation.
- Strengthening climate resilience policies to mitigate future water shortages.
For now, farmers are being advised to optimise water use and prepare for possible rationing. With both Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs nearing depletion, Pakistan’s agricultural sector may face one of its toughest seasons in recent years.
