All eyes are on Nvidia this week as the US technology giant prepares to unveil its financial results for the first quarter of 2025. The announcement, set for Wednesday, comes against a backdrop of growing geopolitical tensions, with renewed scrutiny of American trade policy and tightening export controls on advanced technology.
Nvidia, now the world’s second most valuable publicly listed company behind Microsoft, has become a bellwether for the global tech sector, particularly due to its dominance in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) chips. Investors are bracing for key insights not only into its performance but also into how it plans to navigate an increasingly complex international landscape.
The firm was among several high-profile tech companies to suffer a sharp drop in share price following former President Donald Trump’s recent “liberation day” trade policy overhaul. The tariff-heavy measures roiled financial markets in April, particularly those with exposure to global supply chains and export-heavy revenues. Nvidia, with its critical role in AI hardware, was particularly vulnerable.
However, markets have since stabilised, and Nvidia’s shares have largely recouped earlier losses. Despite this, analysts warn that the company is not out of the woods just yet.
Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said:
“There will doubtless be intense focus on any comments made by Nvidia’s CEO, Jensen Huang, particularly on the subject of tariffs and ongoing trade restrictions. With so much riding on US-China relations, this earnings update could prove pivotal.”
Mr Huang has not shied away from criticising Washington’s policy direction. Recently, he described the latest restrictions on chip exports as a “failure”, arguing that they have harmed US businesses by inadvertently accelerating technological development in China.
The restrictions include a requirement for Nvidia to obtain a licence before exporting its high-performance H20 AI chip to China, including Hong Kong. The measure, which the company says will remain in place “indefinitely”, is expected to cost Nvidia around $5.5 billion (£4.1 billion), according to its own projections.
This comes at a time when Chinese AI competitors, such as DeepSeek, are beginning to close the gap. Emerging earlier this year, DeepSeek has been touted as a potential lower-cost alternative to Nvidia’s offerings. Analysts have noted that the company’s product challenged the prevailing notion that advanced AI requires ever-increasing levels of hardware and power consumption — a narrative that has largely underpinned Nvidia’s meteoric rise.
“Trump’s tariffs and trade policies are blotting out many other issues right now, but this one is yet to go away,” Mr Mould added.
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Despite the headwinds, Nvidia is still expected to deliver robust earnings. Market consensus forecasts sales of approximately $43 billion (£31.9 billion) for the quarter running from February to April, representing a staggering two-thirds increase compared to the $22.1 billion (£16.4 billion) it reported in the same period last year.
However, Nvidia has issued relatively cautious guidance ahead of the results — a move some interpret as strategic, especially given the company’s recent history of outperforming expectations.
Investors will be looking for confirmation that growth in the AI sector remains strong and that demand for Nvidia’s cutting-edge chips continues to outpace supply, even amid regulatory disruption. A strong showing would likely reaffirm investor confidence and help solidify Nvidia’s status as a linchpin of the tech economy.
As Wednesday approaches, the stage is well and truly set. With trade tensions escalating and AI competition intensifying, Nvidia’s earnings call is shaping up to be a critical moment not just for the company but for the global technology landscape at large.
