2024 is set to mark a grim milestone in the ongoing climate crisis, with data from the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) confirming that the global temperature is on track to exceed the critical 1.5°C threshold above preindustrial levels for the first full year.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service reported on Monday that November 2024 saw global temperatures 1.62°C above the preindustrial average. This makes it the 16th month in a 17-month stretch where global-average surface temperatures have breached 1.5°C. November 2024 was the second-warmest November ever recorded, just behind November of the previous year, reinforcing the ongoing trend of rising temperatures.
“At this point, it is effectively certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record, with temperatures more than 1.5°C above preindustrial levels,” the C3S statement confirmed. The service estimates that the global temperature for the year will average 1.59°C above preindustrial levels, up from 1.48°C in 2023.
The news follows an earlier announcement from C3S in October 2024, when it was stated that the year was “virtually certain” to break previous temperature records, after October alone reached a temperature increase of 1.65°C above preindustrial levels.
While the Paris Agreement’s aim of limiting global temperature rise to well below 2°C, and preferably to 1.5°C, was not officially breached, the consistent exceedance of 1.5°C on a monthly and annual basis raises alarm. Samantha Burgess, deputy director of C3S, stressed that while the breach does not officially violate the Paris Agreement, “it does mean ambitious climate action is more urgent than ever.”
The 2015 Paris Agreement was designed to prevent the world from warming more than 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, aiming to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to limit climate disruption. While the United Nations has clarified that brief breaches of 1.5°C over a month or a year do not constitute a failure of the agreement, they serve as crucial warnings of the risks of exceeding the long-term temperature limits.
In fact, a recent study published in Nature warned of the potential for irreversible impacts should the global temperature temporarily surpass the 1.5°C target. The report highlighted the significant risks posed by breaching this threshold, even for short periods, including increased severity of extreme weather events, sea level rise, and ecological damage.
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Climate scientist Bill McGuire, renowned for his work on volcanology and climate science, commented on the data, stating: “The average temperature for 2024 is expected to be 1.60°C—an alarming increase on 2023, which itself was the hottest year for probably 120,000 years. It’s no surprise at all, but still shocking news. Will temperatures drop below 1.5°C again? I have my doubts.”
This update comes in the wake of COP29, the latest United Nations climate summit, which many climate campaigners have criticised as a missed opportunity for real climate action. One of the key focuses of the summit was the negotiation of a climate financing agreement, which would see wealthy nations contribute funds to help developing countries transition to low-carbon economies and deal with the growing impacts of climate change. However, the final agreement fell far short of what critics and many developing nations had hoped for, leaving concerns over the scale and urgency of the international response to the climate crisis.
As the world edges closer to the 1.5°C threshold, experts continue to urge more decisive action to curb emissions, highlighting the critical need to accelerate global efforts to tackle climate change. The persistent breach of the 1.5°C mark is a stark reminder of the accelerating pace of global warming and the urgent need for global leaders to implement more robust and comprehensive strategies to avert catastrophic impacts in the future. The year 2024 stands as a pivotal moment in the climate crisis, with the planet’s future hanging in the balance.
