For nearly three years, Ukraine has fought to defend its sovereignty against Russia’s full-scale invasion, buoyed by unwavering support from its Western allies, particularly the United States. However, in the space of just ten days, the administration of US President Donald Trump has drastically altered Washington’s stance, leaving Kyiv and its European backers scrambling to assess the consequences.
A sudden shift in US foreign policy
For much of the conflict, Ukraine relied on consistent military and financial aid from the US, alongside diplomatic pressure aimed at isolating Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, that approach was turned on its head when Trump held an extensive phone call with Putin last week. Instead of reinforcing Ukraine’s position, Trump’s conversation signalled a willingness to engage with Moscow in negotiations—without Kyiv at the table.
The call was followed by a series of statements and policy moves that raised concerns in Ukraine and among NATO allies. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth suggested that Ukraine’s NATO membership—long viewed as a safeguard against future Russian aggression—was unlikely. He also hinted that Kyiv should temper its ambitions of reclaiming all its lost territory, a position that aligns closely with Moscow’s demands.
The dramatic pivot in US policy has left Ukraine feeling sidelined and vulnerable. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that peace talks between the US and Russia, conducted without Kyiv’s participation, would be “very dangerous” and could lead to a forced settlement that sacrifices Ukrainian land and security.
Mixed messages at the Munich security conference
The uncertainty surrounding US support deepened at the Munich Security Conference on 14 February, where European leaders met key figures from the Trump administration, hoping for clarity. Instead, they were met with conflicting signals.
US Vice President JD Vance criticised Europe for not shouldering more responsibility for Ukraine’s defence. During a highly anticipated meeting with Zelenskyy, Vance suggested that any peace talks would not necessarily include European nations, exacerbating concerns that Washington was bypassing its allies.
Tensions further escalated when Zelenskyy refused to sign an agreement that would grant the US access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals—resources vital to aerospace, defence, and nuclear industries. The Ukrainian president insisted that security guarantees must come before economic deals, leading to frustration in Washington. A senior White House official later described Zelenskyy’s stance as “short-sighted.”
Secret talks in Saudi Arabia exclude Ukraine
On 18 February, US and Russian officials held closed-door discussions in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia—without Ukraine or its European partners. The meeting, led by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, aimed to explore Russia’s willingness to end the war.
Despite assurances from US officials that no concrete proposals were made, the optics of the meeting sparked outrage in Kyiv. Zelenskyy dismissed the talks outright, stating that no meaningful progress could be made if Ukraine itself was not involved. He cancelled a planned visit to Riyadh to avoid any implication that Ukraine endorsed the discussions.
The exclusion of Ukraine from high-level negotiations deepened concerns that Washington might be preparing to broker a deal that prioritises US interests—such as reducing tensions with Russia—over Ukraine’s long-term security.
Trump’s controversial comments escalate tensions
Trump’s personal remarks in the days following the Riyadh meeting only intensified the rift between Washington and Kyiv. Speaking from his Mar-a-Lago resort, he made the shocking claim that Ukraine itself bore responsibility for starting the war—a narrative commonly pushed by Russian propaganda. He also criticised Zelenskyy’s decision to postpone elections due to the ongoing invasion, accusing him of acting like a “dictator.”
On 19 February, Trump’s social media post labelling Zelenskyy as a “dictator” further inflamed tensions. The Ukrainian leader hit back, stating that Trump was “living in a Russian-made disinformation space.”
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Meanwhile, European leaders, led by French President Emmanuel Macron, began discussing contingency plans to bolster Ukraine’s defences without direct US involvement. There were even quiet discussions about the possibility of European troops being deployed to enforce a future peace settlement.
Attempts to mend fences fall short
Hoping to de-escalate tensions, Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine, Ret. Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, arrived in Kyiv on 21 February for talks with Zelenskyy. However, a scheduled press conference was abruptly cancelled at the request of the US delegation, further fuelling speculation that the rift was deepening.
Despite Kellogg’s efforts to reassure Ukrainian officials of continued US support, Trump continued his hardline stance. He publicly dismissed Zelenskyy’s complaints about being excluded from the Saudi talks and insisted that Putin was serious about negotiating a deal.
The future of US-Ukraine relations in question
As the fallout from these ten days continues, Ukraine is left facing an uncertain future. The sudden shift in US policy has raised fears that Washington might pressure Kyiv into an unfavourable peace agreement that cedes territory to Russia in exchange for ending the war.
For now, Ukraine still enjoys strong backing from Europe, but with Trump signalling a reduced US commitment, European nations may have to take a larger role in Ukraine’s defence—potentially reshaping the balance of power in the conflict.
One thing is clear: in just ten days, years of US-Ukraine solidarity have been thrown into question, leaving Kyiv to navigate an increasingly uncertain and complex geopolitical landscape.
