China is preparing for a volatile and uncertain future as former President Donald Trump returns to the White House, signaling a new chapter in US-China relations that may bring both challenges and opportunities. With Trump’s re-election, experts predict a continuation of aggressive trade policies, including the imposition of tariffs as high as 60 percent on Chinese goods. This could disrupt global supply chains, severely affect China’s economic growth, and add to the strain on the already fragile relationship between the two superpowers.
Trump’s first term was marked by fierce trade wars, blacklisting of Chinese companies like Huawei, and harsh rhetoric targeting Beijing, culminating in a sharp downturn in US-China relations. Now, as Trump eyes a second term, he has indicated plans to escalate his punitive measures. The anticipated tariffs, along with new technology restrictions, are expected to worsen the economic challenges China is already facing, including a property crisis, low consumer demand, and rising government debt. According to CNN, these tariffs could slash China’s growth rate by two percentage points, a substantial reduction for an economy that was expected to grow by 5 percent in 2024.
Economic Fallout and Political Strain
If implemented, Trump’s policies could signal a dramatic shift in global trade dynamics. Analysts warn that the tariffs could lead to the collapse of China’s growth model, which has long relied on exports and manufacturing as primary drivers of economic expansion. Investment bank Macquarie forecasts that the tariffs would significantly hinder China’s ability to maintain its projected economic growth, adding further pressure on its already struggling economy.
“Trade war 2.0 could end China’s ongoing growth model,” said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie. The potential for rising tensions over trade and technology could also destabilize China’s economy, further exacerbating internal problems.
Trump’s protectionist stance may put China’s economic future at risk, but Beijing is also carefully watching the broader geopolitical landscape. While the U.S. focuses inward with its “America First” policies, Beijing sees an opportunity to step into the vacuum left by America’s reduced global influence. China’s leaders could look to capitalize on weakened U.S. alliances, potentially asserting greater influence in regions where American leadership has faltered.
Unpredictability of Trump’s Policies
The unpredictable nature of Trump’s leadership style is another significant concern for China. According to Liu Dongshu, an assistant professor of international affairs at the City University of Hong Kong, “Trump is a very mercurial person,” making it difficult to predict whether he will follow through on the aggressive policies he proposed during his campaign. This uncertainty is compounded by Trump’s tendency to shift course on major issues, as seen during his first term, when he initially admired Chinese President Xi Jinping before launching into an all-out trade war.
“Beijing is likely to approach the President-elect with caution,” said Daniel Russel, vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute. “It’s a matter of determining which Trump to expect and where they might find opportunities.”
Despite the risks, China also acknowledges that there could be potential advantages in the new administration’s approach. Beijing sees a chance to deepen relationships with Europe, which may reject Trump’s tariff-heavy policies and the technology decoupling efforts aimed at isolating China. In addition, other regions that are wary of U.S. aggression, such as parts of Africa and Latin America, could become fertile ground for increased Chinese influence.
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China’s Official Response
Officially, China’s response to Trump’s re-election has been measured and diplomatic. The Chinese Foreign Ministry released a statement saying it “respects” the outcome of the American election, and President Xi Jinping personally congratulated Trump on his victory. In his message, Xi stressed that both countries should “find the right way” to “get along in the new era,” a sign that Beijing is open to dialogue but bracing for a potentially difficult future.
Despite these official statements, China’s internal preparations for the next phase in US-China relations suggest the nation is steeling itself for a turbulent period. “Trump’s return to power will certainly bring greater opportunities and greater risks for China,” said Shen Dingli, a foreign policy analyst based in Shanghai. “Whether it leads to more risks or more opportunities depends on how the two sides interact with each other.”
The Long-Term Outlook
As Trump prepares to re-enter the White House, both Washington and Beijing are looking ahead to a future that promises more uncertainty. China faces a precarious balancing act—confronting an aggressive and unpredictable U.S. while looking to capitalize on geopolitical opportunities that arise. However, the stakes are high. The trajectory of U.S.-China relations will play a critical role in shaping the global political and economic landscape for years to come.
While there are significant risks to China’s economic growth and political stability in the face of Trump’s hard-line policies, Beijing also sees the potential to assert itself on the global stage in ways that could reshape international relations. As the world watches, the future of U.S.-China relations remains uncertain, but it will undoubtedly be a defining issue in global geopolitics in the coming years.
