As the November election approaches, neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump holds a clear lead with voters on economic issues, marking a dramatic shift from an area that was once a distinct advantage for Trump. According to a recent poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, the economy—a critical factor for many voters—has become a toss-up, with roughly 4 in 10 registered voters favoring each candidate on this key issue.
While Trump has long tried to position Harris as linked to President Joe Biden’s economic policies, the poll suggests Harris may not be weighed down by Biden’s economic track record as much as Trump had hoped. Approximately 1 in 10 voters expressed a lack of confidence in either candidate’s ability to manage the economy effectively, and a similar proportion viewed both candidates equally on the issue.
For Trump, this poll presents a potential red flag. Historically, the economy was one of his strongest areas during his presidency. A separate poll conducted in June showed that nearly 60% of Americans disapproved of Biden’s handling of the economy, a major source of concern for Democrats. Earlier in the year, Trump received higher marks than Biden when it came to tackling issues like the cost of living and job creation.
The importance of the economy in voters’ minds
For the vast majority of voters—about 8 in 10—the economy remains one of the most significant issues shaping their choice in the upcoming election. Economic concerns continue to overshadow other pressing topics such as healthcare, crime, and even the environment. Despite the current unemployment rate of 4.2% and notable stock market gains, inflation and the cost of living have had a profound effect on voters’ perceptions.
Lingering frustrations over inflation, particularly its spike to a 40-year high in 2022, continue to influence voters. Many Americans are still feeling the pinch at the grocery store, while rising interest rates have made home and car purchases more expensive. According to the poll, only about a third of voters rate the national economy as good, while 6 in 10 are more optimistic about their personal financial situations—a figure that has remained stable despite declining inflation.
Stark policy differences between Harris and Trump
The contrasting economic policies of Harris and Trump offer voters a clear choice. However, both campaigns have yet to provide detailed explanations of how they would implement their proposals. Harris has focused on middle-class benefits, funded by higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy, while emphasizing that her plans would not increase the deficit. Trump, on the other hand, proposes tax cuts for corporations and wealthy individuals, paired with a universal tariff of up to 20% to encourage investment in U.S. manufacturing.
Supporters of both candidates are vocal about their preferences. Mark Carlough, a 33-year-old medical records worker in Philadelphia, plans to vote for Harris, expressing concerns that Trump’s proposed tariffs would harm consumers. “The tariffs would be horrible for the economy,” Carlough said.
Meanwhile, 32-year-old Richard Tunnell from Texas, a Trump supporter, believes that Trump’s experience as a businessman gives him an edge. “This country needs someone to treat it like a game of Monopoly, and that person is Donald Trump,” said Tunnell, a military veteran.
However, not all voters are convinced by either candidate’s approach. Chantelle Breaux, a stay-at-home parent from Louisiana, feels that neither Trump nor Harris has a compelling economic vision. “Kamala wants to put a Band-Aid where major surgery needs to be done, and Trump thinks the country is a business—but it’s not,” Breaux said.
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Other issues in play
While the economy is a major focus, other issues will also shape voter sentiment in the upcoming election. Over half of voters identified healthcare as a top concern, and about half expressed similar worries regarding crime, immigration, abortion policy, and gun policy. Climate change, however, ranked lower, with only about one-third of voters citing it as a key issue.
Immigration remains a strong point for Trump, who leads Harris in voter trust on handling the issue. During Biden’s presidency, illegal immigration and border crossings have been ongoing challenges, giving Trump an edge on an issue that resonates deeply with Republican voters.
The poll indicates that voters see Harris and Trump as evenly matched on crime and the ongoing conflict in Gaza, but views splinter along party lines when it comes to other key issues. For Republicans, immigration is a central concern, whereas Democrats may prioritize economic equality and healthcare reforms.
As the election draws closer, the economy remains a battleground, with both Harris and Trump vying to convince undecided voters that their policies will lead to greater prosperity. However, the lack of a decisive leader on the issue of economic management suggests that voters could be in for a contentious race.
