Imran Khan, Pakistan’s former prime minister, remains a persistent and formidable challenge to the military-backed government, even from behind bars. Having spent more than a year incarcerated and facing over 100 charges ranging from corruption to terrorism, Khan continues to dominate the political landscape. His influence, far from waning, seems to be growing, making the so-called “Khan problem” the biggest threat to the Pakistani military in half a century.
In late November, more than 10,000 of Khan’s loyal supporters marched on the capital, Islamabad, demanding the release of their leader and other imprisoned members of his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, as well as the dissolution of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government. “Khan remains deeply popular and capable of mobilising the public on a great scale, even from his jail cell,” said Michael Kugelman, a senior fellow at the Wilson Center. “This gives him leverage by enabling him to maintain pressure on the state.”
The PTI has alleged that 12 protesters were killed during the violent crackdown on the November march, a development that has deepened public anger and intensified tensions. The incident comes amid broader dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of Pakistan’s economic crisis, which has only worsened in the past two years. “Khan is a ‘martyr’ to a public struggling with rising costs and stagnating purchasing power,” said Adeel Malik, a professor of political economy at the University of Oxford.
The military-backed government, which assumed power in February, had hoped that curbing PTI’s opposition would provide enough breathing space to stabilise Pakistan’s troubled economy. As part of this strategy, the government successfully secured a $7bn IMF package in September, reduced inflation to 4.9% after it peaked at 38% in May last year, and bolstered foreign exchange reserves to $12bn. The stock market has also experienced a historic bull run. However, this economic progress has come at a significant cost: the government has launched a broad crackdown on PTI leadership and supporters, particularly following the May 2023 riots, which saw military installations targeted.
Authorities have rounded up thousands of people, with approximately 1,900 facing charges in anti-terrorism courts. The government has also targeted Bushra Bibi, Khan’s wife, who led the November protest. Human rights lawyer Imaan Mazari-Hazir stated, “What I’ve seen since last year is complete capture of every arm of the state by the military.”
While the government has claimed that security personnel were unarmed and only a few protesters died during the Islamabad clashes, the PTI’s accusations of a violent crackdown have fuelled anger. The interior ministry reported that at least five security personnel were killed during the protests, with over 70 officers injured. This episode is being viewed by many as a major escalation, one that has only deepened the legitimacy crisis the military faces.
Oxford’s Adeel Malik described the situation as a “massive, massive escalation,” referencing Pakistan’s historical legitimacy crisis following the 1971 civil war, which led to the creation of Bangladesh. “To much of the public, the army has really crossed a Rubicon in dealing with its Imran Khan problem.”
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The government has since floated the idea of banning Khan’s PTI party and suspending its rule in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a province where PTI holds a two-thirds majority. The region, home to 40 million people, is also grappling with a deadly Taliban insurgency. In addition, the government has signalled its intent to amend the electronic crimes law to criminalise the spread of “fake news and negative propaganda” on social media. This has led to heightened restrictions on platforms like X (formerly Twitter), which remains inaccessible to most Pakistanis without the use of a virtual private network (VPN).
The military’s public relations wing, Inter-Services Public Relations, recently called for stringent laws to curb what it labelled as the “unfettered use of freedom of expression to spew venom, lies and sow the seeds of polarisation.” However, experts warn that the state’s heavy-handed approach could have serious economic repercussions. Limiting internet access, which affects millions of Pakistanis, could damage the livelihoods of many, while foreign investors may lose confidence amid fears of economic instability and political repression.
Analysts have also pointed out that Khan’s continued popularity stems from his ability to tap into public grievances about Pakistan’s economic status quo, the erosion of democracy, and deteriorating security. “Imran Khan is a conduit for public grievance and disaffection,” said Azeema Cheema, a director at Verso Consulting. “He is also a scorched-earth politician who amplifies the anxieties of his political opponents and disrupts the everyday business of the state.”
As the Pakistani military continues to grapple with its “Khan problem,” the future of the country’s political and economic stability remains uncertain. With the military’s attempts to neutralise Khan failing to quell his influence, Pakistan’s political landscape appears more volatile than ever.
