Liberal Democrats seize ground in southern heartlands as Tories battle Reform UK surge in North
The Liberal Democrats have claimed the mantle of “the party of middle England”, according to leader Sir Ed Davey, as the party enjoyed a wave of success in Thursday’s local elections, gaining more than 100 councillors and displacing the Conservatives in several traditional Tory strongholds.
As the Conservative Party suffered losses on two fronts — squeezed in the South by the Lib Dems and challenged in the North and Midlands by a surging Reform UK — Sir Ed hailed the results as proof that his party is now a serious national force, particularly in the south of England.
Speaking on Friday as results continued to come in, Sir Ed said: “We have overtaken the Conservatives at these local elections, putting us on track to overtake them at the next general election too. From Wiltshire to Oxfordshire, from Shropshire to Devon, the Liberal Democrats have replaced the Conservatives as the party of middle England.”
Thursday’s polls saw the Liberal Democrats seize overall control of Shropshire Council, a long-time Conservative stronghold, and gain majority control in both Oxfordshire and Cambridgeshire. The party also became the largest political group in key counties such as Hertfordshire, Wiltshire, Gloucestershire and Devon.
The Lib Dems now control four county councils outright, including Somerset, which they have led since 2022. Their advance across southern England represents a significant political shift and poses a serious threat to the Conservatives’ efforts to rebuild after the 2024 general election loss.
Sir Ed attributed the party’s success to disillusioned Conservative voters abandoning a party they no longer recognise.
“Former Tory voters are appalled by the Conservatives lurching to the extremes and cosying up to Nigel Farage,” he said. “Today, voters across the country have chosen our community politics over the Conservative Party’s neglect and disdain.”
The Liberal Democrat campaign focused heavily on local services, environmental concerns, and opposition to Conservative-led policies, particularly on issues like water pollution, rural NHS funding, and housing.
Meanwhile, the Tories endured a rough night across the country. While Reform UK cut into their support in northern and Midlands seats, the Lib Dems’ steady march across the South appears to have opened up a new battleground for the next general election.
Kemi Badenoch, a senior Conservative cabinet minister and widely seen as a potential leadership contender, conceded the challenge posed by the Lib Dems. Speaking to journalists on Friday, she said: “The Liberal Democrats are one of several threats we face. But the Conservative Party can win again by staying true to its principles and values.”
Despite Badenoch’s confident tone, the results highlight a fracturing of the Tory vote. In the North, many traditional Conservative voters appear to be drifting towards Reform UK, while in the South, the Liberal Democrats are attracting moderate and middle-class voters who once reliably backed the Tories.
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Political analysts suggest the Lib Dems’ grassroots campaigning style and focus on local issues have resonated with disaffected voters who feel abandoned by national politics.
The party’s advances are already fuelling speculation about its ambitions for the next general election. While Sir Ed Davey has remained cautious about national predictions, Friday’s results will boost the Lib Dems’ confidence and visibility in the run-up to Westminster contests.
With the political map of England being redrawn, the Liberal Democrats’ return to relevance in swathes of the country may well position them as kingmakers — or more — in a future coalition government.
As the dust settles on this year’s local elections, one thing is clear: the political centre ground, long dominated by the Conservatives in England’s southern counties, is now being firmly contested by a revitalised Liberal Democrat Party.
