Will Maharashtra, Jharkhand polls defy exit predictions like Haryana and J&K?

As voters in Maharashtra and Jharkhand cast their ballots on Wednesday, November 20, attention has swiftly shifted to the exit polls predicting the outcomes of these pivotal legislative assembly elections. With results set to be declared on November 23, political analysts and the public are speculating on whether exit polls will hit their mark or repeat the glaring inaccuracies witnessed in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir (J&K).

Exit polls under the microscope

Exit polls, designed to gauge voter preferences immediately after voting, have long been a source of intrigue and debate. While they can offer a snapshot of public sentiment, their reliability has been questioned after notable errors in recent elections, including Haryana and J&K, which led to public apologies from polling agencies.

Exit poll methodology and limitations

Exit polls employ a structured methodology, yet several inherent limitations undermine their accuracy:

1. Sampling: Pollsters select diverse polling stations to represent demographic and political diversity. However, incorrect or skewed sampling can distort results.
2. Questionnaire Design: Voters are asked about their choice and demographic details, but the phrasing of questions can influence responses.
3. Data Collection: Pollsters approach voters outside polling stations, ensuring anonymity to elicit honest answers. Despite this, some voters may intentionally misreport their choices.
4. Statistical Analysis: Collected data is analysed to account for turnout variations and demographic imbalances. Yet, unforeseen trends and late swings can upset projections.
5. Predictions and Margins of Error: Exit polls present predictions with margins of error, but these are not always clearly communicated, leading to public misinterpretation.
6. Media Reporting: Results are released post-voting with disclaimers about their limitations. However, these caveats are often overlooked, creating an illusion of certainty.

Despite these robust methodologies, exit polls remain prone to errors, as demonstrated in Haryana and J&K.

Lessons from Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir

The 2024 state elections in Haryana and J&K exposed significant gaps in exit poll accuracy.

• Haryana: Exit polls overwhelmingly predicted a Congress victory, reflecting public dissatisfaction with the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). However, the BJP defied expectations, winning 48 of 90 seats, improving on its 2019 performance and overcoming anti-incumbency. The Congress, projected to win a majority, secured only 37 seats.
• Jammu and Kashmir: Pollsters projected a comfortable victory for the National Conference (NC)-Congress alliance with 40–48 seats. While the alliance achieved 48 seats, the NC dominated with 42, leaving Congress with just six. The BJP, forecast to win 27–32 seats, secured 29, while the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) saw a dismal performance with three seats.

These discrepancies highlighted flaws in sampling techniques, voter reporting, and an over-reliance on historical voting patterns.

Prediction failures

Exit poll results from Haryana and J&K varied widely, with some notable inaccuracies:

• Haryana:
  • C-Voter-India Today: Congress (50–58), BJP (20–28)
  • Republic Bharat-Matrize: Congress (55–62), BJP (18–24)
  • Peoples’ Pulse: Congress (49–60), BJP (20–32)
• J&K:
  • C-Voter-India Today: NC-Congress alliance (40–48), BJP (27–32)
  • Peoples’ Pulse: NC-Congress alliance (46–50), BJP (23–27)
  • Republic-Gulistan: NC-Congress alliance (31–36), BJP (28–30)

The stark differences between these projections and the actual results have raised doubts about the robustness of exit poll methodologies.

Maharashtra and Jharkhand: The road ahead

As Maharashtra and Jharkhand await the declaration of results, the spotlight is once again on exit polls. Maharashtra’s politically charged environment and Jharkhand’s complex electoral dynamics provide fertile ground for testing the reliability of polling firms.

The EC’s decision to schedule polling midweek in Maharashtra was aimed at improving voter turnout in urban areas. However, dismal participation in Mumbai and Pune has cast a shadow on the state’s democratic engagement, further complicating the accuracy of exit poll projections.

In Jharkhand, a state with historically higher voter engagement, predictions may hinge on how rural and tribal voters influence the overall outcome.

Will history repeat itself?

The missteps of Haryana and J&K elections have left polling firms with much to prove. With Maharashtra and Jharkhand’s outcomes poised to test their credibility, the coming days will reveal whether the industry has learned from past errors or if exit polls will once again miss the mark.

For now, all eyes remain on November 23, when the voters’ choices will ultimately decide the fate of these two states.