China has now taken the global lead in research on nearly 90% of critical technologies, according to a report by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI). This includes defense-related technologies such as drones, satellites, and collaborative robots. The report, which tracks the competitiveness of nations in critical tech sectors, highlights a major shift in global research dominance, with China and the United States having “effectively switched places” in the past two decades.
ASPI’s Critical Technology Tracker, released last Thursday, shows China leading research in 57 out of 64 advanced technologies between 2019 and 2023. This is a stark contrast to the period from 2003 to 2007, when China led in only three technologies. Today, the U.S. leads in just seven areas. The technologies tracked range from artificial intelligence (AI) and biotechnology to cyber and defense systems.
The report warns that China is on the brink of monopolizing critical technology research, particularly in defense-related areas. ASPI identified 24 technologies at high risk of monopoly, all of which are dominated by Beijing.
China’s rapid rise
The leap in China’s tech research is attributed to significant state investment. Josh Kennedy-White, a technology strategist based in Singapore, explains that China’s rise is the “direct result of its aggressive, state-driven research and development investments over the past two decades.” Fields like AI, quantum computing, and advanced aircraft engines are where China has rapidly advanced from being a follower to a leader.
Kennedy-White also noted that while China leads in research, it remains dependent on other countries for key tech components, especially semiconductors. “Even though it leads in areas like artificial intelligence and 5G, China still depends on Taiwan, the U.S., and South Korea to produce high-end semiconductors,” he said, describing this as a critical weakness that could slow Beijing’s progress in areas like AI and quantum computing.
China’s strategic technology goals
China’s technological progress is part of its broader strategy to become a global tech powerhouse. President Xi Jinping’s Made in China 2025 initiative, launched in 2015, seeks to make China self-reliant in critical sectors. Advanced technologies are viewed as key to the country’s development, national security, and global competitiveness. Xi considers these technologies central to China’s long-term geopolitical and economic objectives.
Tobias Feakin, founder of Protostar Strategy, notes that China’s focus on defense-related technologies is particularly concerning. He pointed out the “monopoly risk” in technologies like drones and radar systems, which could have significant geopolitical implications.
U.S. response and export controls
China’s rapid technological rise has not gone unnoticed by the U.S. government. The Biden administration has implemented measures to curb China’s access to advanced technologies. Last week, the U.S. introduced new export controls, including restrictions on chip-making equipment and quantum computing components.
U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan recently visited Beijing and met with President Xi and Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Sullivan emphasized that Washington would continue to protect its national security by limiting China’s access to advanced U.S. technologies.
Despite these efforts, experts like Kennedy-White caution that while China may be leading in research, its reliance on foreign-made semiconductors remains a significant obstacle. This dependency could “stunt Beijing’s progress in key areas like artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and military applications.”
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Intellectual property concerns
China’s rapid rise in critical technologies has also raised concerns about how it has achieved such breakthroughs. The Five Eyes intelligence alliance, comprising the U.S., U.K., Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, has accused China of intellectual property theft. U.S. FBI director Christopher Wray described China’s actions as an “unprecedented threat.”
Kennedy-White agrees, noting that China’s jump in tech rankings is “not entirely organic” and appears linked to allegations of intellectual property theft.
Global implications and competition
ASPI’s report recommends that countries like Australia, the U.K., and the U.S., along with Japan and South Korea, join forces to close the technological gap with China. It also highlights India’s emergence as a key player in global tech innovation. India now ranks in the top five countries for 45 out of 64 tracked technologies, a significant improvement from its earlier standing.
Feakin believes that the Asia-Pacific region will benefit from India’s growing tech influence. “Countries across the Asia-Pacific will benefit from leveraging India’s growing technology expertise and influence,” he said, signaling a potential shift in the global tech landscape.
As China continues to lead in critical technology research, the world watches closely to see how these advancements will shape global geopolitics and technology leadership.
