In the wake of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime crumbling, the battle for Syria’s future has entered a new and uncertain phase. The sudden and dramatic events of the past few weeks have shifted the balance of power in the war-torn country, with various rebel groups vying for control and influence. At the forefront of this change is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by the ambitious Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, who is positioning himself as a key figure in shaping Syria’s post-Assad future.
HTS’s rise to prominence began with a sudden and devastating military advance, first seizing the city of Aleppo and then moving into Hama and Homs from their stronghold in the north-western province of Idlib. These actions have undoubtedly contributed to the swift collapse of Assad’s government, which had previously seemed entrenched despite years of war. The group’s leadership has also been working tirelessly to shift its image from a notorious and feared extremist organisation to a more pragmatic force that could be seen as a viable alternative to Assad’s regime.
However, al-Jawlani’s ambitions are not shared by all rebel factions. Other groups, some of which had lain dormant for years, have resurfaced in response to the changing tide of the war. Among these are factions that were once part of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), who were active in southern cities and towns during the early stages of the rebellion. These groups, now scattered across Syria, still carry the torch of resistance against Assad, though their influence has been diminished in the face of HTS’s rise and the complexities of Syria’s fractured political landscape.
To the east of Syria, Kurdish-led forces, having capitalised on the Syrian army’s collapse, have taken full control of the strategic city of Deir El-Zour. These forces, including the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), have carved out a significant zone of control in the country’s north-east, and their autonomy has long been a point of contention with the Assad regime. Kurdish forces are now poised to play a major role in Syria’s future, and their relationship with other rebel groups, including HTS, remains one of cautious cooperation at best.
In the vast desert regions of Syria, remnants of the so-called Islamic State (IS) group could also pose a threat in the aftermath of Assad’s downfall. Despite suffering significant defeats in recent years, IS cells continue to operate in Syria’s remote regions, exploiting the chaos and shifting allegiances to rebuild their influence.
Further to the north, along Syria’s border with Turkey, the Syrian National Army (SNA) – a rebel group backed by Ankara – stands ready to assert its own claim to power. This group has long been a major player in the conflict, receiving substantial military and financial support from Turkey. As the Syrian regime loses its grip on power, the SNA could become a central force in determining Syria’s future direction, particularly as Turkey seeks to solidify its interests in the region.
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The complexities of Syria’s rebel landscape are compounded by the competing ambitions of external powers. While HTS and other rebel groups fight for control on the ground, international actors such as Russia, Iran, Turkey, and the United States are recalibrating their strategies in response to the shifting dynamics. Russia and Iran, which have long supported Assad’s regime, are now faced with a new reality as they seek to preserve their influence in the region. Meanwhile, Turkey, which has backed various rebel groups, including the SNA, will continue to push for its own vision of Syria’s future, particularly regarding Kurdish autonomy. The US, which maintains a military presence in the Kurdish-controlled east, will also play a critical role in determining the future political order in Syria.
At the heart of this chaotic struggle is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Founded in 2011 as Jabhat al-Nusra, an al-Qaeda affiliate, HTS has undergone significant transformation under al-Jawlani’s leadership. Although doubts remain about the group’s complete renouncement of its past ties to al-Qaeda, it has publicly distanced itself from its extremist roots, seeking to present itself as a more inclusive and pragmatic alternative to the Assad regime. Yet, this shift has been marred by allegations of human rights abuses and internal power struggles, raising questions about the true nature of HTS’s ambitions.
The future of Syria remains uncertain, with the rebellion fractured into numerous competing factions, each vying for a piece of the country’s future. While HTS leads the charge against the regime, it must contend with not only other rebel groups but also the complicated web of international interests that are deeply entangled in the conflict. How Syria’s political future unfolds will depend on the interplay between these internal factions and the powerful external forces that continue to shape the country’s fate.
