Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has proposed a bold new strategy for Ukraine’s security, offering it protection under NATO’s Article 5 security guarantee—without granting full membership. It is a radical approach that carries both risk and ingenuity.
A high-stakes gamble
Meloni’s idea may seem reckless at first. It would, after all, commit NATO allies—including the US and Europe—to a level of military risk they have carefully avoided since Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008. Ever since then, successive Western leaders have walked a fine line, providing Ukraine with military aid while steering clear of direct conflict with Moscow. Joe Biden has taken this caution to the extreme, slow-walking arms deliveries to avoid the threat of nuclear escalation. Even Donald Trump, despite his unpredictability, would likely hesitate before endorsing such a commitment.
Yet, Meloni’s proposal also carries strategic brilliance. It is at least as well-considered as the alternative plan put forward by France and the UK, which suggests deploying peacekeeping troops to Ukraine. That idea, however, is fraught with logistical and military challenges. Establishing a force of sufficient size would require extensive airlifts, artillery, and a level of sustained support that only the US could provide. Even then, it would only work if Russia agreed to the presence of peacekeepers—something that seems highly unlikely.
Exposing Putin’s motives
The real strength of Meloni’s plan lies in how it would challenge Russian President Vladimir Putin’s justification for his invasion. For years, the Kremlin has argued that NATO’s eastward expansion threatened Russian security, a claim that many in the West—including Trump—have accepted at face value.
Yet, the timeline tells a different story. NATO had not expanded towards Russia since 2004, focusing instead on the Western Balkans. Even Sweden and Finland only applied for membership after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The real question is whether Putin’s concern is genuinely about NATO bases on his borders or simply the idea of Ukraine aligning itself with the West.
If his fear were purely defensive, Meloni’s proposal should be acceptable. It would ensure Ukraine’s security without placing NATO bases or troops on its soil. However, if Putin rejects the plan—as he almost certainly will—it will reveal his true goal: to restore control over former Soviet territories, rather than simply protecting Russia’s borders.
Historical precedent
Meloni’s plan echoes the NATO-Russia Founding Act of 1997, in which NATO pledged not to station nuclear weapons or permanent bases in new member states. This agreement reassured Russia while still allowing countries like Poland and the Baltic states to benefit from NATO’s security umbrella.
Similarly, when Putin annexed Crimea in 2014, Ukraine was not even seeking NATO membership. At the time, its constitution prohibited joining any military alliance. The fact that Russia invaded anyway proves that NATO’s open-door policy was merely an excuse.
Testing Putin’s response
Putin is unlikely to accept Meloni’s plan because his broader ambition has always been to pull former Soviet republics into Russia-led alliances, such as the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union. For him, Ukraine’s independence—whether under NATO’s protection or not—is the real threat.
However, formally presenting this proposal would be a useful diplomatic tool. If Putin rejects it, it would provide Western governments with clearer justification for continued military support to Ukraine. It would also help counter the narrative that NATO provoked the war.
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The Trump factor
Meloni’s proposal could also create an interesting test for Trump’s foreign policy stance. Despite his recent warnings to Putin against further aggression, Trump has historically treated Ukraine as a bargaining chip. His administration has pushed Kyiv into making economic concessions that benefit US interests while offering little in the way of genuine security commitments.
Over the weekend, Trump condemned Putin’s latest proposal to place Ukraine under UN control and remove President Volodymyr Zelensky. He threatened severe sanctions if Putin continued to undermine peace efforts. However, his administration has simultaneously pressured Ukraine into accepting exploitative economic agreements—granting the US long-term control over its natural resources and infrastructure.
A necessary test
Ultimately, Meloni’s plan would force Putin to reveal his true intentions. If he refuses, it will make clear that his war is not about NATO but about imperial ambition. It would also shine a light on the contradictions within US policy—where Washington claims to support Ukraine while simultaneously securing its own economic interests at Kyiv’s expense.
Right now, Ukraine is caught between two major powers. Russia is waging a war of territorial expansion under the guise of self-defence. Meanwhile, the US is exploiting Ukraine’s vulnerability to extract economic concessions while offering no meaningful security guarantees.
In this brutal game of power politics, Meloni’s plan offers a rare opportunity for clarity. Even if it does not succeed, it is worth pursuing—if only to expose the real motives of those involved.
