The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria carries profound implications for Iraq’s political and security landscape. One immediate concern is the security vacuum left in Syria, which could trigger similar spillover effects across the border reminiscent of the 2014 rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). The fall of Assad has compounded regional instability, and Iraq, which shares a long border with Syria, faces the risk of renewed threats from militant groups seeking to exploit the situation.
In the longer term, the political developments in Syria also signal a shift in the regional balance of power. The weakening of Iran’s influence in the region, especially following the defeat of Hezbollah in Lebanon, will force Iraqi policymakers to reassess their relationship with Tehran. Iran, a long-time ally of Iraq, has been a significant player in shaping Iraq’s internal security and political dynamics. With the prospect of a diminished Iranian role, particularly as the U.S. administration under President Donald Trump gears up for a maximum-pressure campaign against Tehran, Iraq’s government will have to carefully navigate this evolving diplomatic terrain.
This situation is expected to play out most visibly within Iraq’s security sector, where the United States and Iraq are poised to revisit their security arrangements. In September 2024, both countries agreed to a phased withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq by 2026. However, the security vacuum left in Syria and the broader regional instability could complicate this process, prompting Iraq to seek continued U.S. support to safeguard its hard-earned security. Despite the gradual withdrawal of combat troops, Iraq’s security needs remain pressing, particularly as it faces growing challenges from Iran-backed militia groups and other destabilizing actors.
Iraq’s security framework is also evolving. In late 2023, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani signaled that Iraq was now stable enough to push for the end of the Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF-OIR). This U.S.-led military mission, established in 2014 to combat ISIS, transitioned into an advisory role in 2021, withdrawing all combat troops. Iraq’s next logical step is to establish a bilateral security agreement with the United States, marking the end of CJTF-OIR operations in Iraq. Although this change may be seen as a symbolic shift towards greater sovereignty, it also reflects Iraq’s growing desire to manage its security independently, while still benefiting from U.S. support in a more respectful framework.
However, this new arrangement comes with its own set of complexities. The continued influence of Iran in Iraq cannot be ignored. Despite having no official military presence, Iran has maintained control over powerful proxy groups within the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). These groups, including Kataib Hezbollah, Harakat al-Nujaba, and others, have often operated outside the control of the Iraqi government, further complicating Iraq’s internal security landscape. The challenge for Iraq will be to institutionalize the PMF and integrate them into the broader Iraqi Security Forces, without alienating influential Shia political factions or Iran itself.
Moreover, the ongoing instability in Syria has made Iraq hesitant to dismantle its security infrastructure, which includes these proxy forces. Iraq’s leadership must balance its security requirements with the need to assert its sovereignty, ensuring that Iran’s influence does not overshadow Iraq’s political and military autonomy. However, Iran’s own struggles, particularly its loss of Hezbollah’s military strength, may lead to further efforts to consolidate power in Iraq, which Iraqi officials must resist.
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The Iraqi government has expressed its commitment to demobilize certain factions or integrate them into the state apparatus. Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein has publicly stated that Iraq is working to neutralize militant factions to preserve national security. The government’s push to reintegrate armed groups, however, requires careful management. Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraq’s leading Shia cleric, has repeatedly emphasized that the state must have a monopoly on violence, a sentiment echoed by many in Iraq’s leadership. The involvement of Iran in these armed groups further complicates the situation, with Tehran seeking to leverage its influence in Iraq to secure its regional interests.
In light of these challenges, Iraq must prioritize its sovereignty and stability above all. The country’s long-term security will rely on effectively managing its relationships with both regional powers and global actors, especially the United States. Iraq’s ability to maintain its independence in the face of external pressures will determine its future security and political trajectory. With the collapse of Assad’s regime in Syria, Iraq is presented with both challenges and opportunities. While the threat of instability remains, Iraq has a chance to redefine its role in the region, distancing itself from the influence of Iran while building stronger ties with global powers that respect its sovereignty.
The coming years will be critical for Iraq’s political and security development. As the country navigates a complex regional environment, it must carefully craft its strategies to ensure that it remains a secure and sovereign state, capable of confronting both internal and external threats while preserving its hard-won stability.
