A senior Conservative has cautioned that high immigration is not a “quick-fix” for Scotland’s declining population, as he opposed the Scottish National Party’s (SNP) bid to devolve immigration powers to Holyrood. Shadow Scottish Secretary Andrew Bowie described proposals for increased immigration to address an aging population as a “pyramid scheme response,” warning that such a strategy would only perpetuate the crisis rather than solve it.
Bowie’s comments were made in response to growing discussions over how to tackle Scotland’s demographic challenges. Figures from the National Records of Scotland suggest that the population aged 75 or older will increase by 341,300 between 2022 and 2047. Meanwhile, the number of children aged 15 or younger is projected to fall by 79,900. The disparity has prompted calls for policy changes to address the looming imbalance between the working-age population and retirees.
The SNP’s Pete Wishart argued that the UK Government’s handling of immigration, including its Brexit-related policies, was exacerbating the issue. He suggested that Westminster’s two-child cap on benefits was a form of “social engineering” that had contributed to Scotland’s declining birth rates. The cap restricts families to claiming benefits, such as Universal Credit, for only two children, with no additional uplift for larger families.
Bowie rejected the idea that immigration could provide a solution to Scotland’s demographic issues, asserting that it was a short-sighted and flawed approach. “High immigration to solve low birth rates and an aging population is a pyramid scheme response,” he stated. “Working-age immigrants initially slow the growth of the age dependency ratio, but they too will age, perpetuating the same crisis again and again.”
He also questioned the SNP’s priorities, arguing that the party should focus on supporting working families and improving the economic outlook for Scotland, rather than advocating for an open-door immigration policy. “Scotland should aim to become the lowest-tax part of the UK and see what that brings in terms of attracting people north of the border,” Bowie added.
While Bowie’s remarks were pointed, the debate surrounding immigration and the aging population has drawn varied opinions. SNP MP Wishart continued to argue that Scotland needs more working-age people to rejuvenate its population and avert a crisis. He emphasised that the UK Government’s handling of immigration post-Brexit was making matters worse, claiming that the fall in birth rates was being exacerbated by a “clumsy and callous” attempt to suppress large families through the benefits system.
“The Government is making our situation ten times worse by trying to suppress our birth rate at the very time when we need more children,” Wishart said. “This is not just about immigration; it’s about ensuring we have a sustainable and thriving population.”
Wishart further praised former Prime Minister Tony Blair’s government, which he claimed had helped address Scotland’s population issues by opening up Eastern Europe through EU accession. This policy, he argued, had enabled Scotland to benefit from an influx of workers that had helped to offset some of the population challenges.
The debate took a legislative turn with the introduction of the Devolution (Immigration) (Scotland) Bill, proposed by SNP MP Stephen Gethins. The bill seeks to remove immigration, including asylum policy, from the list of reserved matters, thereby granting the Scottish Parliament the power to manage immigration policy independently. The bill, however, ran out of time in the Commons, and a vote will be postponed until July 11.
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Scottish Secretary Ian Murray responded to the debate by stating that the UK Government’s priority was to reduce immigration. He argued that the Government’s view was based on the need to address issues within Scotland, including the fact that nearly one in six young people in Scotland are neither in education, employment, nor training.
Murray highlighted the disparity between the influx of foreign workers to fill gaps in Scotland’s industries and the number of local young people facing unemployment. He called for a focus on “workforce planning and skills,” adding that devolving asylum policy to the Scottish Parliament could create confusion with different immigration rules on either side of the border.
The debate on Scotland’s immigration policy remains contentious, with differing views on how to best address the country’s aging population and declining birth rates. While some argue for more flexible immigration controls, others, like Bowie, contend that a more comprehensive approach to supporting families and strengthening the domestic workforce is needed to secure Scotland’s future. The issue will continue to evolve as MPs prepare for further discussions in the coming months.
