Real-Time Payments Set to Boost Global GDP and Financial Inclusion by 2028, Research Shows
Real-time payments are predicted to drive significant global economic growth and promote financial inclusion, according to ACI Worldwide’s “Real-Time Payments: Economic Impact and Financial Inclusion” report. In collaboration with The Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr), ACI Worldwide’s analysis highlights the transformative potential of real-time payment systems in various economies, estimating an additional $285.8 billion in global GDP growth and the addition of over 167 million bank account holders by 2028. This forecast underscores the role of digital payments in reducing poverty, improving economic efficiency, and offering banks new revenue streams through increased financial participation.
Economic impact of real-time payments
ACI Worldwide’s research reveals that by facilitating instant financial transactions, real-time payment systems minimize delays, reduce transaction costs, and bring cash-based activities into the formal economy. In 2023, these systems contributed $164 billion to the global GDP, a figure equivalent to the labor output of around 12 million workers. By 2028, GDP contributions from real-time payments are projected to rise to $285.8 billion, a 74.2% increase within five years, aligning with the labor of 16.9 million workers.
Further, aggregated net savings for businesses and consumers reached $116.9 billion in 2023 and are expected to grow to $245.8 billion by 2028. “Real-time payments act as a powerful catalyst for economic growth and societal transformation in modern, digital economies,” said ACI Worldwide’s president and CEO Thomas Warsop, emphasizing the efficiency and financial inclusivity these systems bring.
Financial inclusion and societal benefits
For the first time, the report identifies a direct empirical link between real-time payments and financial inclusion. By 2028, the study estimates that over 167 million people across the 28 countries included in the research will gain access to bank accounts, particularly benefiting young people (18-24 years), women, and those from lower-income groups. Countries projected to experience the largest financial inclusion uplift include Pakistan, India, the Philippines, Nigeria, and China, with Pakistan alone seeing an additional 63.5 million individuals joining the financial ecosystem.
This financial inclusion is expected to provide critical societal benefits by reducing poverty levels and fostering access to affordable financial services, allowing individuals to participate more fully in their economies. Owen Good, Head of Economic Advisory at Cebr, noted, “This research shows a positive link between instant payments and financial inclusion. Instant payments not only reduce transaction costs but also enhance user experience, making financial systems more accessible.”
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Regional economic and financial inclusion highlights
The economic impact and financial inclusion benefits of real-time payments vary significantly by region:
- Asia Pacific: As home to some of the largest real-time payment markets like India, China, and Thailand, Asia Pacific leads in real-time payment adoption. India alone saw a $50 billion GDP boost in 2023, the highest globally in this category. Indonesia, projected to contribute $3.6 billion to its GDP by 2028, is one of the fastest-growing markets in the region.
- Africa: Nigeria, the continent’s largest real-time payments market, experienced a $7 billion GDP boost in 2023. Nigeria also leads in bank profit potential, with banks expected to earn $40.4 billion from increased participation in the financial system by 2028.
- Europe: In response to the EU’s Instant Payments Regulation, Europe is transitioning towards instant payments. The regulation aims to mirror the successes of countries like Turkey, which is projected to contribute $5.1 billion to GDP through real-time payments by 2028. The UK follows closely with an anticipated GDP increase of $4 billion.
- Middle East: The Middle East is the fastest-growing real-time payments market, with Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE benefiting significantly. Saudi Arabia is forecasted to see a $1.1 billion GDP increase by 2028, while Bahrain expects a $677.6 million GDP rise.
- Latin America: In Brazil, real-time payments contributed $24.6 billion to the economy in 2023, representing the labor of 1.3 million workers. Mexico ranks among the top five global beneficiaries of real-time payments, with a GDP boost of $10.3 billion this year, while Colombia is expected to achieve the largest financial inclusion gains in the region, with 5.1 million new account holders projected by 2028.
- North America: In the United States, consumers and businesses saved over $1 billion through real-time payments in 2023, a figure expected to quadruple by 2028. The U.S. is also among the top 10 countries projected for the largest financial inclusion impact, with nearly 4.9 million individuals anticipated to enter the financial system by 2028.
Profit opportunities for financial institutions
With real-time payment systems growing globally, banks stand to gain significant profit opportunities. Financial institutions in Pakistan are expected to earn around $173 billion, with Nigeria, the Philippines, India, and China following closely behind. This growth enables banks to access new markets and revenue streams while contributing to financial inclusion.
In conclusion, real-time payments offer a comprehensive win-win scenario by enhancing economic efficiency, promoting financial inclusion, and providing profit opportunities for financial institutions. As Thomas Warsop pointed out, “Payment modernization presents a win-win proposition for everyone, including governments and banks,” marking real-time payments as a critical force in the evolution of digital economies globally.
