Commentary: Reform shows it can compete north of the border too
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has made a thunderous entrance into Scottish politics, sending shockwaves through Holyrood and leaving both the SNP and Conservatives licking their wounds.
In a stunning by-election upset in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, Labour’s Davy Russell surged to victory with 8,559 votes — a result few outside the campaign team had predicted. The SNP’s Katy Loudon came second on 7,957, down a bruising 17 percentage points from the party’s 2021 showing, while Reform’s Ross Lambie stormed into third with 7,088 votes, a remarkable rise from just 0.2% of the vote in 2021 to 26% now.
The result has electrified political commentators, exposing deep fractures in Scotland’s traditional party loyalties. While John Swinney billed the race as a two-horse contest between the SNP and Reform, Labour’s local hero proved the real thoroughbred in this field.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer was quick to seize the moment, calling it a “fantastic” victory, while Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar hailed the result as further evidence of Labour’s resurgence north of the border. For Starmer, whose party is eager to consolidate gains in Scotland after last year’s general election, the win is timely — though the reduced majority, compared to Labour’s previous Westminster by-election victory in the region, suggests there’s still work to do.
A win is a win, but Labour had previously won this area with a 9,500-vote margin. Russell’s 602-vote cushion in this contest does highlight that political loyalties remain fluid, especially when an insurgent force like Reform is in play.
For Farage’s party, the result is another milestone. Following its razor-thin win in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election by just six votes in May — part of a wider push that saw Reform grab 677 council seats and seize control of ten town halls — the party’s Scottish surge suggests its appeal is not confined to England.
The SNP, meanwhile, are smarting. In power at Holyrood since 2007, the party has suffered from internal strife, falling trust over key policies, and the loss of its once-dominant aura. This by-election confirms that even in their former heartlands, the SNP now face serious competition on multiple fronts.
And the Tories? Their downward spiral continues. Dropping 11 percentage points to just 6% and a humiliating fourth place finish, the party’s presence in Scotland looks increasingly anemic. For leader Kemi Badenoch, already under pressure from her own benches, the result will raise fresh concerns about her ability to reverse the party’s fortunes.
The real story, however, may lie with Reform UK. Though the party still lacks the boots-on-the-ground infrastructure and campaign machinery that gives Labour and the SNP their electoral resilience, its performance in Hamilton suggests there is a growing appetite among Scottish voters for its message. That it nearly eclipsed the SNP in a historically nationalist stronghold will be causing headaches for Swinney’s strategists.
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Reform’s internal tensions could yet pose problems. The recent resignation of chairman Zia Yusuf — who played a key role in broadening the party’s appeal — over comments by new MP Sarah Pochin about banning the burka, has left a hole in its leadership. Yusuf was seen as instrumental in professionalising the party and fostering national growth, including north of the border.
Still, the Hamilton by-election shows that in Scotland’s already fragmented political landscape — shaped by proportional representation — there’s room for Reform to grow.
As Labour celebrates, the SNP regroups, and the Tories retreat, Farage’s party now has every reason to set its sights on future gains across Scotland. The race is no longer just between two horses — the field has widened, and Reform UK is galloping hard into contention.
