The political landscape in Britain is once again at a crossroads, with a potential by-election in Runcorn and Helsby threatening to trigger a major shift. The comparison to Shirley Williams’ victory in the 1981 Crosby by-election is striking. That political earthquake saw the newly formed Social Democratic Party (SDP) shake up the traditional two-party system, sending shockwaves through Westminster. Today, a new question is being asked: could Nigel Farage be on the verge of a similar moment?
A by-election in the making?
The catalyst for this political drama is former Labour MP Mike Amesbury, who was initially sentenced to ten weeks in jail for assault before successfully appealing to have his sentence suspended. Despite this, pressure is mounting for him to step down, with Reform UK chairman Zia Yusuf leading calls for his resignation. The party has already launched a media stunt, featuring a van driving around the constituency displaying a photoshopped “mugshot” of Amesbury alongside the claim: “Runcorn’s Labour MP punched a constituent.”
Should Amesbury resign or face a recall petition—an outcome still possible due to his custodial sentence—a by-election will follow in the coming months. Reform UK sources believe this is inevitable: “It will happen one way or another,” a party insider has predicted.
Panic in downing street
For Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, the prospect of a by-election in one of his party’s 20 safest seats is deeply unsettling. His leadership has already faced growing unease over Reform UK’s surge in popularity, and the loss of Runcorn and Helsby would escalate those concerns dramatically.
The threat from Farage and Reform UK is being taken seriously inside No. 10, where influential Labour strategist Morgan McSweeney has pushed for an early campaign effort in the seat, even before a by-election has been officially called. “I do think we’ll hold it,” said one senior Labour figure close to No. 10, “and when we do, all the MPs will calm down a bit about our tricky start.”
However, the alternative scenario is far more troubling for Labour. A Reform UK victory would confirm the worst fears inside Starmer’s cabinet. The party has already begun shifting its rhetoric in response to the growing Farage challenge, with Labour aides increasingly discussing Reform UK as their main opposition—despite the Conservatives being the official opposition in Parliament. “Downing Street has finally clocked that it is a big issue for us,” admitted one Labour MP in a constituency where Reform is in second place.
This recognition has prompted policy adjustments. In recent weeks, Labour figures have embraced a more ‘Blue Labour’ approach, emphasising stricter immigration policies and engaging in cultural debates. Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy, once accused by McSweeney of being aligned with left-wing progressive politics, has begun adopting a tougher stance. She recently condemned anti-business activism targeting investment firm Baillie Gifford, warning that “self-defeating virtue-signalling” was “killing off” cultural sponsorships. Meanwhile, Downing Street aides have reportedly engaged with Munira Mirza, a former adviser to Boris Johnson, to discuss issues of multiculturalism.
Reform UK’s big test
For Reform UK, the Runcorn and Helsby by-election represents a major test. The party is riding high in the polls but now faces the challenge of proving its electoral machinery is ready to compete seriously.
The party has been rapidly professionalising, with its new headquarters in Millbank Tower serving as the centre of a hiring spree as financial support pours in. Candidate selection, historically a weak point for the party, is now a priority as Reform seeks to field stronger local representatives.
A by-election victory would be monumental, solidifying Reform UK as a major political force. As one senior party figure put it:
“Officially, Labour should keep it—it is a safe seat. But there are three factors that tend to define by-elections: 1. A very unpopular government. 2. A frustrated public. 3. An MP who has behaved badly.”
If Farage’s party secures a win, it would confirm that the realignment in British politics is more than just theoretical—it is happening.
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Could this be reform UK’s ‘1981 moment’?
The stakes could not be higher. If Reform UK comes close but falls short, it may feel reminiscent of Roy Jenkins’ near-miss in the 1981 Warrington by-election—a respectable result, but not one that truly reshapes the political landscape. A victory, however, would be closer to Shirley Williams’ Crosby triumph, where the SDP momentarily upended British politics.
A Labour loss would send the Conservative Party into turmoil as well. Many Tory MPs already lament their party’s frequent third-place finishes in Reform UK-leaning constituencies. If Reform UK were to take a Labour stronghold, it would intensify calls for a Conservative-Reform electoral pact, with many on the right fearing that the Tories are losing their position as the primary opposition to Labour.
A defining political earthquake?
While the SDP ultimately failed to break the two-party system and did not win the subsequent general election, its electoral successes forced both Labour and the Conservatives to adapt. Farage and Reform UK will be hoping for a similar outcome.
As the 2025 general election looms, Reform UK has the opportunity to redefine British politics. If they can pull off a victory in Runcorn and Helsby, it would not just be a by-election win—it would be a seismic event. One that could force both major parties to reassess their electoral strategies and reshape the political map of Britain.
