Vladimir Putin has expressed a willingness to engage in peace talks with Donald Trump regarding a potential ceasefire in Ukraine. However, the Russian President has firmly stated that there will be no major territorial concessions and that Ukraine must abandon its aspirations of joining NATO, according to five sources familiar with Kremlin discussions.
Trump, who has previously vowed to end the conflict quickly, will soon return to the White House, at a time when Russia is gaining ground in Ukraine. Moscow currently controls a substantial portion of Ukrainian territory, roughly the size of Virginia in the United States, and its forces are advancing rapidly, with momentum not seen since the early days of the 2022 invasion.
Sources close to the Kremlin have indicated that Russia would be open to freezing the conflict along the current frontlines. Negotiations could also include some flexibility over the division of four eastern Ukrainian regions—Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson—although Russia considers these regions as part of its territory. Despite this, Russian forces control only 70-80% of the regions, with Ukrainian forces holding around 26,000 square kilometres.
The possibility of Russia withdrawing from some areas it controls, particularly in Kharkiv and Mykolaiv, has also been mooted, although this remains uncertain.
Putin emphasised in a recent address that any ceasefire agreement should reflect the existing realities on the ground, warning against short-lived truces that would only serve to enable Western powers to rearm Ukraine. He stressed that without neutrality for Ukraine, the prospects for good neighbourly relations between the two nations would be bleak. “Without neutrality, Ukraine would be perpetually used as a tool against Russia’s interests,” Putin remarked during a Valdai conference in November.
The ongoing conflict has been marked by an increasingly high-risk environment, particularly after the U.S. allowed Ukraine to use ATACMS missiles to strike deep into Russian territory. This move was condemned by Moscow, which described it as a dangerous escalation. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that any missile strike authorisation by the U.S. is a significant escalation and could derail any peace efforts, with Russia prepared to continue fighting if no ceasefire is agreed.
In response, Trump’s communications director, Steven Cheung, asserted that Trump is the only leader capable of bringing both sides to the negotiating table and ending the war. Trump, who famously authored The Art of the Deal, has expressed his intent to speak directly with Putin in an effort to secure peace, although specifics on how he might broker such a deal remain unclear.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has made it clear that Ukraine will not cease its efforts until every last Russian soldier is expelled from Ukrainian territory, which includes territories acquired after the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991. However, some U.S. military experts have suggested that this goal may be overly ambitious, particularly given the current dynamics on the battlefield.
In June, Putin outlined his terms for a ceasefire, which included a demand that Ukraine withdraw from the four regions that Russia claims as its own and renounce its NATO ambitions. Alongside this, Moscow is reportedly open to discussions regarding security guarantees for Ukraine, provided they do not involve NATO membership.
Additional Russian demands could include limitations on the size of Ukraine’s armed forces and an assurance that Ukrainian authorities would not restrict the use of the Russian language within the country. These conditions are seen as non-negotiable by many in the Kremlin.
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While some experts believe a swift ceasefire agreement could be reached, Dimitri Simes, a leading Russian-American expert, cautioned that a broader peace deal addressing the security concerns of both Ukraine and Russia would be highly difficult to achieve, given the stark differences in each side’s objectives.
At present, Russia controls roughly 18% of Ukraine, including Crimea, which it annexed in 2014, and much of the Donbas region (Donetsk and Luhansk). Russia also controls large portions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. In contrast, Ukraine has gained only a small portion of Russia’s Kursk region. From a domestic standpoint, Putin could present any peace agreement that retains most of these territories as a victory, asserting that it ensures the protection of Russian-speaking populations and safeguards the land bridge to Crimea.
However, the future of Crimea itself remains a non-negotiable issue for Russia, and no discussions will be entertained regarding its status.
One source, privy to top-level Kremlin deliberations, underscored that the West must confront the “harsh truth” that its support for Ukraine will not alter the trajectory of the conflict. Russia, they argue, is effectively winning the war.
Putin, who has taken a highly personal and central role in the invasion, has framed the conflict as a necessary stand against NATO expansion and Western interference in Russia’s sphere of influence. Whether or not peace talks will gain traction under Trump’s leadership remains uncertain, with the stakes for both sides continuing to rise.
