The ball is now in Russia’s court for the proposed ceasefire in Ukraine, set to begin next Tuesday, according to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. This marks the first major breakthrough in peace talks since Russia’s invasion over a thousand days ago, a conflict that has claimed at least half a million lives, left countless more wounded, and displaced millions.
Yet, Russia has yet to formally respond to the Ukrainian proposal for a 30-day cessation of hostilities, tabled in Jeddah this Tuesday. Moscow’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman has cryptically remarked about “not heeding discussions in foreign lands”, offering no concrete position on the matter.
Meanwhile, former US President Donald Trump has weighed in, asserting that the ceasefire’s success hinges on what he can negotiate with Vladimir Putin. “I think the ceasefire is very important,” he remarked. “If we can get Russia to do it, that’ll be great. If we can’t, we just keep going on, and people are gonna get killed – lots of people.”
Perhaps never a truer word spoken. Keen to shake off accusations of being soft on Moscow, Trump has also reinstated full military support to Ukraine, including the resumption of real-time American battlefield intelligence. As such, all eyes remain on next week, with hopes that the guns and rockets will fall silent along the thousand-kilometre frontline.
What Putin wants
Much now depends on the terms Russia sets for a lasting peace. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently reiterated that Moscow’s demands remain unchanged since February 2022: Ukrainian capitulation, the formal ceding of all occupied territories, and wider geopolitical concessions. These include the full annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, along with a strategic stake in Odesa to secure Russia’s access to the Black Sea.
Additionally, the Kremlin insists on Ukrainian neutrality, meaning no application for NATO or EU membership in the foreseeable future. Effectively, Putin envisions Ukraine as a de facto Russian satellite state, alongside Belarus and Georgia. His wider goal is to diminish NATO’s influence in Eastern Europe and reassert Russia’s dominance across the former Soviet sphere.
A historical perspective
Putin’s ambitions are deeply rooted in history. The seeds of today’s crisis were sown in the 1990s, when Ukraine relinquished its nuclear arsenal in exchange for sovereignty guarantees under the Budapest Memorandum, witnessed by Russia, the US, and the UK. Implicitly, Moscow claims, this also meant NATO would halt its eastward expansion. Yet, by 2004, the Baltic states had joined NATO, followed by Finland and Sweden in 2023.
As NATO’s footprint grew, diplomatic engagement with Russia declined. By 2007, Putin had made his frustration clear in a landmark speech at the Munich Security Conference, warning that NATO was encroaching on Russia’s strategic interests. His message, largely ignored at the time, has since proven prophetic.
Fast forward to 2008, and NATO’s Bucharest summit declared that Ukraine and Georgia would one day become members—though without specifying when or how. Just months later, Russia and Georgia went to war over South Ossetia, an unresolved conflict to this day.
By 2014, hostilities had escalated in Ukraine itself, beginning with the annexation of Crimea and the prolonged conflict in the Donbas. Then, in July 2021, Putin published a 7,000-word essay titled On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians. In it, he lamented the “tragedy” of a divided Russia and Ukraine, reinforcing his long-held belief that Kyiv belongs within Moscow’s sphere of influence.
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A diplomatic gamble
Putin’s worldview is clear: Russia is reclaiming what he sees as its rightful place at the heart of Eurasia. A lasting peace in Ukraine will require a major geopolitical realignment, involving not just Moscow and Kyiv, but also Brussels and Washington.
Meanwhile, on the battlefield, both sides desperately seek an operational pause. A ceasefire—if agreed—could pave the way for a negotiated settlement. Yet, Putin’s demands remain maximalist, and Ukraine’s Western allies remain firm in their support for Kyiv’s sovereignty.
In this delicate balancing act, one man has emerged as a key diplomatic player: Jonathan Powell, chief adviser to UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Powell, instrumental in brokering the Good Friday Agreement under Tony Blair, has quietly engaged all sides, working behind the scenes to find common ground. His challenge now is to navigate Putin’s demands while ensuring Ukraine’s future remains secure.
As the world watches, the next few days will determine whether diplomacy can succeed—or whether the war grinds on.
