Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s earned settlement plans, which would double the standard wait for permanent residence in the UK from five years to 10, are facing open resistance from within Labour. Two cabinet ministers have publicly criticised the plans, although one has since said she fully supports them, and around 100 Labour MPs are reported to oppose them. Reports published between 20 and 23 October 2026 set out the scale of the disagreement as ministers prepare to announce their final decision.
What the earned settlement plans propose
The plans were set out in a Home Office command paper, A Fairer Pathway to Settlement, presented to Parliament in November 2025. Under the proposals:
- the standard qualifying period for indefinite leave to remain (ILR) would rise from five to 10 years
- a 15-year period was put out for consultation for sponsored workers in roles below degree level, such as lower-skilled Health and Care visa holders
- some people could qualify sooner, including high earners and skilled public service workers such as doctors and teachers
- people who claim public funds would face a longer wait
The consultation closed on 12 February 2026. As drafted, the changes would apply to everyone who has not yet been granted ILR, and the paper asked whether transitional arrangements should protect people already on the path to settlement. That question has become central to the dispute. LBC reported on 20 October that plans to apply the rules retrospectively to people who arrived from 2021 were a particular point of contention.
Mahmood told the Home Affairs Committee on 15 September that the revised policy would be published later this year, before February 2027, when the first people who arrived in 2022 would qualify under the current rules, according to a briefing by law firm Lewis Silkin.
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Where ministers stand
Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh said the week before the LBC report that extending the waiting time threatened “the process of building cohesion”, repeating criticism she had made in a blog for her constituents. On 22 October, she posted on X that she fully supported the Home Secretary and the government’s position on migration reform, LBC reported; she had earlier repeatedly declined in a Sky News interview to say whether she backed the plans.
Housing Secretary Angela Rayner’s position has been reported in different ways. LBC said she had criticised the retrospective element in September as moving the goalposts. But in an LBC interview on 27 September she said there was “no split story there” and said she agreed with Mahmood’s aim of a fair system.
Prime Minister Andy Burnham is considering exempting care workers from the longer qualifying period, a move the Home Office opposes, LBC reported on 20 October, although an ally of Mahmood told The Times that he had backed her throughout the row. Asked on 23 October whether he would stick to the plans, Burnham said the government would announce its decisions soon, but that he strongly supported Mahmood’s view that settlement should be earned through contribution, LBC reported.
Labour MPs and the care sector
LBC reported that around 100 Labour MPs are understood to oppose the plans, and that 80 MPs had written to Burnham earlier this year asking him to water down the reforms. In March, more than 100 Labour MPs sent Mahmood a private letter urging the government to rethink its immigration changes, Bloomberg reported at the time.
The care sector is one focus of concern. In August the union UNISON urged Mahmood to drop the 15-year plan for overseas care staff, warning that it would worsen staffing shortages, Healthcare Management reported. A government spokesperson said at the time that ministers would respond to the consultation in due course.
The opposition’s response
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has suggested her party could vote with the government to pass the proposals, LBC reported. She argued that if immigration is not brought down, Britain risks civil unrest like that taking place in France at the time. The reports Westferry Times reviewed did not include responses from Reform UK or the Liberal Democrats.
What happens next
According to LBC, the plans could be brought to Parliament as soon as November. Mahmood has said the changes will be made in the normal way, through a Statement of Changes in Immigration Rules. The main questions still to be settled are whether care workers will be exempt and whether the longer waits will apply to people already living in the UK. Our earlier report on the May 2025 visa restrictions covers how the policy began.
Sources: LBC, Mahmood faces down Cabinet backlash over immigration plans (20 October 2026); LBC, Burnham backs Mahmood on immigration but fails to fully commit to ILR plans (23 October 2026); Bloomberg, Starmer facing revolt on UK immigration reforms from 100 MPs (4 March 2026); Home Office, A Fairer Pathway to Settlement (CP 1448) (November 2025); Lewis Silkin via Mondaq, Revised earned settlement policy to be unveiled before the end of 2026 (7 October 2026); LBC, Angela Rayner denies disagreement with Shabana Mahmood (27 September 2026); Healthcare Management, Mahmood urged to ditch care workforce settlement plans (19 August 2026).
