The annual U.N. climate summit, COP29, kicked off on Monday in Azerbaijan’s capital, Baku, where negotiators from across the globe gathered to address the growing urgency of climate finance and trade disputes. While the summit’s primary focus is securing up to $1 trillion annually for climate finance to aid developing countries, the discussions are taking place amid heightened geopolitical tensions and competing global priorities. Among the challenges facing delegates are the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza, as well as the recent re-election of Donald Trump as U.S. president, a figure whose climate change skepticism casts a shadow over global climate efforts.
One of the central goals of COP29 is to finalize a deal for climate finance to replace the expiring $100 billion pledge, which has been a cornerstone of climate negotiations in recent years. Developing countries, emboldened by a year of severe weather disasters, are increasingly vocal in demanding substantial financial commitments to help them adapt to and mitigate climate change impacts. With extreme weather events affecting nations from Africa to the Americas, the pressure is mounting for rich countries to deliver on their financial promises.
Trade Disputes and U.S. Climate Politics
As the world’s largest economy, the United States has a significant role in shaping global climate policy. However, Trump’s re-election and his longstanding climate denial stance have raised concerns about the U.S. disengaging from international climate cooperation once again. Trump has previously described climate change as a “hoax” and promised to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Agreement. His re-election has spurred fears that his policies will undermine efforts to tackle global warming, prompting discussions about how other countries might respond to a possible U.S. pullback.
Trump’s trade policies, including his promise to impose tariffs on foreign goods—especially a 20 percent tariff on all imports and a 60 percent tariff on Chinese goods—have added another layer of complexity to the summit’s discussions. China, representing the fast-growing “BASIC” group of countries, including Brazil, India, and South Africa, has proposed addressing these trade disputes within the context of climate negotiations. Specifically, China has called for a discussion on “restrictive trade measures,” such as the European Union’s carbon border tariffs, which are set to take effect in 2026. This move is seen as a way for China to assert its influence and push back against U.S. and EU trade policies that it views as unfair or discriminatory.
Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, noted that these trade disputes were likely to become more prominent in light of Trump’s re-election. “If the EU wants to talk about climate finance with China, part of the conversation should be how to resolve our differences on trade and your tariffs,” Shuo said, highlighting the interconnectedness of trade and climate negotiations.
Azerbaijan’s Role in the Climate Talks
Azerbaijan, the host country for COP29, finds itself in a delicate position as it seeks to balance its role as a fossil fuel exporter with its commitment to transition to cleaner energy sources. The Caspian Sea nation has long been reliant on oil and gas revenues, which made up 35 percent of its GDP in 2023. While the government has pledged to reduce its dependency on fossil fuels, its oil and gas sector remains a critical part of the economy. Azerbaijan’s leadership has argued that natural gas can serve as a “transition fuel” in the move toward greener energy sources, a stance that has drawn criticism from environmental groups who argue that promoting gas as a clean energy option undermines global climate goals.
Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, who has referred to the country’s fossil fuel reserves as a “gift of God,” has pushed for a Climate Finance Action Fund, which aims to collect up to $1 billion from extractive companies across 10 countries, including Azerbaijan. While the government promotes gas exports to Europe as part of its efforts to reduce dependency on Russian energy, environmental advocates contend that any promotion of fossil fuels is a setback in the fight against climate change.
Despite these challenges, Azerbaijan is making strides in renewable energy, with plans to increase its share of green energy to 35 percent of its power generation by 2030, up from 20 percent last year. While this represents progress, the country’s continued reliance on fossil fuel exports and its human rights record, including the imprisonment of political prisoners and ethnic Armenians, casts a shadow over its climate leadership.
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The Broader Climate Agenda
With this year on track to be the hottest on record, the need for decisive climate action is more urgent than ever. Extreme weather events, including floods in Africa, coastal Spain, and North Carolina, as well as droughts in South America, Mexico, and the U.S. West, are challenging countries worldwide. Climate experts warn that unless countries collectively step up their efforts to curb emissions and increase climate finance, the impacts of climate change will become even more severe, affecting both rich and poor nations alike.
Kaveh Guilanpour, vice president for international strategies at the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, emphasized that climate science remains unaffected by political shifts. “Election results don’t alter the laws of physics,” he said, urging global leaders to prioritize the climate crisis despite domestic political challenges. There are concerns, however, that the U.S. disengagement under Trump’s leadership could lead other countries to scale back their climate commitments, undermining the progress made in recent years.
As COP29 continues in Baku, delegates will face the challenge of navigating complex geopolitical issues, trade disputes, and differing national priorities while working toward a global agreement on climate finance and emissions reductions. With climate extremes affecting every corner of the globe, the urgency for meaningful action has never been greater.
