Iran has informed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) of its intentions to significantly expand its uranium-enrichment capabilities. According to a confidential report by the UN nuclear watchdog, Tehran plans to install over 6,000 new uranium-enriching centrifuges at its enrichment facilities and activate several existing machines. The disclosure, seen by Reuters, follows a recent IAEA Board of Governors resolution critical of Iran’s nuclear activities.
Escalating enrichment efforts
Iran’s plan to bolster its enrichment infrastructure includes the installation of 32 additional cascades—clusters of more than 160 centrifuges each—across its facilities. Notably, it also intends to set up a massive cascade of up to 1,152 advanced IR-6 centrifuges. Currently, Iran operates over 10,000 centrifuges at its Natanz and Fordow enrichment sites, as well as at an above-ground pilot plant in Natanz.
The installation of these additional centrifuges would allow Iran to enrich uranium at an accelerated pace, potentially raising concerns about nuclear proliferation risks. While Iran continues to deny seeking nuclear weapons, Western powers remain sceptical. Enriching uranium to up to 60 per cent purity, as Iran has already done, is close to the 90 per cent level required for weapons-grade material. No other nation has enriched uranium to such levels without subsequently producing nuclear weapons.
Mixed signals from Iran
The IAEA report revealed that the only specified enrichment level for the new centrifuges was 5 per cent purity, a level far below the 60 per cent Iran is currently producing. This could be interpreted as a gesture towards European powers, potentially aimed at finding common ground before the anticipated return of Donald Trump as US President. However, the report cautioned that enrichment levels can be adjusted easily.
Iran’s Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP), an underground site buried beneath a mountain, remains a focal point for international scrutiny. The site, where Iran is already enriching uranium to 60 per cent, is considered highly sensitive due to its fortified location. The IAEA report stated that Iran plans to activate eight recently installed IR-6 cascades at Fordow, which would require adjustments to the intensity of the agency’s inspection activities.
Conditional offers and rejection
Ahead of last week’s IAEA Board of Governors meeting, Iran proposed capping its stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 per cent. However, the offer was contingent on the board refraining from passing a resolution against Iran. Despite Iran’s proposal and the IAEA’s verification that enrichment at the highest levels had slowed, the board proceeded with the resolution, citing the need for Iran to improve its cooperation with the agency.
The resolution, backed by Britain, France, Germany, and the United States, reiterated concerns about Iran’s lack of transparency and compliance with its nuclear commitments. In response, Iran has escalated its enrichment plans.
Increased capabilities at Natanz
Iran’s enrichment plans also extend to its underground Fuel Enrichment Plant at Natanz. The IAEA report confirmed that Iran has completed installing the last two cascades of IR-2m centrifuges in a batch of 18. Although the IAEA has verified that no uranium has yet been fed into these machines, Iran intends to bring all 18 cascades online.
Additionally, Tehran plans to install 18 extra cascades of IR-4 centrifuges at Natanz, each comprising 166 machines. At the above-ground pilot plant in Natanz, Iran has indicated that it will increase the number of full cascades, potentially boosting its capacity to produce enriched uranium.
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One of the most significant developments is Iran’s intention to install a cascade of up to 1,152 IR-6 centrifuges at the pilot plant. If realised, this would be the largest cascade ever built in the country, capable of substantially increasing its enrichment output.
International implications
Iran’s latest move is likely to heighten tensions with Western powers, who have long sought to limit its nuclear capabilities through negotiations and agreements, such as the now-defunct Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The expansion of its enrichment programme comes at a time when diplomatic efforts to revive the JCPOA remain stalled.
While Iran insists its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes, the IAEA report underscores the growing challenges in verifying and monitoring Tehran’s activities. The watchdog continues to emphasise the need for enhanced cooperation and transparency from Iran.
As the international community reacts to these developments, the situation underscores the fragility of global nuclear diplomacy and the challenges posed by Iran’s expanding enrichment programme.
