JAKARTA, 5 December (Reuters) – Southeast Asian foreign ministers are set to gather in Thailand later this month to discuss the ongoing crisis in Myanmar, Indonesia’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Roy Soemirat, announced on Thursday.
The meeting, organised at the invitation of ASEAN chair Laos, will focus on addressing the turmoil that has gripped Myanmar since a 2021 military coup. Discussions will include reviewing progress on ASEAN’s five-point consensus plan, an initiative aimed at restoring peace and stability in the region’s troubled member state.
A struggling consensus
The five-point consensus, unveiled in April 2021, called for an immediate end to violence, dialogue among all parties, humanitarian assistance, and the appointment of a special envoy to mediate in the crisis. However, progress has been minimal, with Myanmar’s junta resisting regional and international pressure to engage meaningfully with its political opponents or halt hostilities.
The junta has been battling widespread resistance, including armed rebellion, since overthrowing the democratically elected government. Despite repeated calls from ASEAN and the global community, it has shown little willingness to cease its military offensives or consider a dialogue-based resolution.
Focus of the meeting
The Thailand meeting, scheduled to begin on 20 December, aims to reinvigorate efforts under the consensus plan. The gathering will also explore ways to address the humanitarian crisis in Myanmar, which has worsened due to ongoing violence and displacement.
During the October ASEAN summit, the bloc emphasised the urgent need for an “immediate cessation” of hostilities and the creation of a “conducive environment” for humanitarian aid and inclusive national dialogue. However, achieving these goals remains elusive, particularly as the junta continues to reject calls for reform.
Indonesia’s role
As the outgoing chair of ASEAN, Indonesia has played a leading role in trying to mediate the crisis. Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi is expected to represent Indonesia at the Thailand meeting, underscoring the country’s commitment to seeking a resolution.
Indonesia’s presidency of ASEAN this year has been marked by persistent diplomatic efforts to bring Myanmar’s generals to the negotiating table. However, the lack of tangible results has been a source of frustration for many within the bloc, as well as for international observers.
Challenges ahead
Myanmar’s crisis presents a significant test for ASEAN’s credibility as a regional organisation. The bloc’s principle of non-interference in member states’ domestic affairs has often limited its ability to act decisively in situations of political turmoil or human rights abuses.
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The junta’s defiance has also raised questions about Myanmar’s continued membership in ASEAN. Some member states have advocated for tougher measures, including suspending Myanmar from the bloc or downgrading its participation. However, such proposals have faced resistance from countries like Cambodia and Laos, which prefer a less confrontational approach.
Broader implications
The crisis in Myanmar has implications beyond its borders, affecting regional stability and straining relations between ASEAN and its international partners. Countries such as the United States, Japan, and Australia have urged the bloc to take a firmer stance, while China’s influence in Myanmar adds a layer of geopolitical complexity.
Humanitarian organisations have also called on ASEAN to prioritise the needs of displaced populations and those affected by the ongoing conflict. The United Nations estimates that more than 1.6 million people have been displaced in Myanmar since the coup, with many facing dire living conditions.
A critical meeting
The Thailand meeting is seen as a critical opportunity for ASEAN to reassert its role in addressing the Myanmar crisis. With little progress made since the introduction of the five-point consensus, member states face mounting pressure to take more decisive action.
The outcome of the discussions will likely shape the bloc’s approach to Myanmar in 2024 and beyond, as well as its standing on the global stage. For now, hopes rest on whether ASEAN can find common ground to push for meaningful change in Myanmar while upholding its principles of regional unity and cooperation.
