This round-up of fact-checks has been compiled by Full Fact, the UK’s largest fact-checking charity, dedicated to uncovering and countering misinformation.
Has the UK promised Ukraine £3 billion a year for the next 100 years?
Social media posts have claimed that Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has pledged to send £3 billion in aid to Ukraine annually for the next 100 years. However, this is a misleading interpretation of the agreement.
Many of these posts feature an official portrait of Sir Keir alongside text stating he has “promised Ukraine £3 billion a year for the next 100 years while our country goes down the toilet.”
While Sir Keir has indeed signed a ‘100 Year Partnership Declaration’ with Ukraine, this does not commit the UK to providing military aid for a century. Instead, the agreement states:
“The UK will provide Ukraine with annual military assistance of no less than £3 billion a year until 2030/31 and for as long as needed to support Ukraine.”
This means the £3 billion commitment is confirmed until at least 2030/31, but beyond that, its continuation is dependent on future circumstances.
When Full Fact approached the Ministry of Defence last month for clarification—specifically, whether the £3 billion commitment would persist if the war ended sooner or extend beyond 2030/31 if the conflict continued—it declined to comment on “hypothetical scenarios.”
Furthermore, the final provisions of the declaration state it will “continue in effect for 100 years from the date of signature.” However, it also includes a clause allowing either party to terminate the agreement with written notice.
The House of Commons Library has clarified:
“While the agreement leaves long-term military support open-ended, it does not commit the government to annually providing Ukraine with £3 billion of military assistance for 100 years.”
Immigration vs. Net migration figures
During Prime Minister’s Questions on Wednesday, Sir Keir Starmer claimed that the Conservative government had “presided over record high levels of immigration” and that it had “reached nearly one million.”
Similarly, Labour’s border security and asylum minister, Dame Angela Eagle, stated earlier in the week:
“The Tories lost control of our borders with immigration at a record high of nearly one million.”
However, these figures are not entirely accurate.
In reality, immigration—the total number of people moving to the UK for 12 months or more—hit a record high of approximately 1.3 million in the year to June 2023. This is significantly higher than the “nearly one million” figure mentioned by both Sir Keir and Dame Angela.
The figure they likely meant to refer to is net migration, which is the difference between long-term immigrants and emigrants. Net migration in the year to June 2023 reached a record high of approximately 906,000—a different metric from the total immigration figure.
Given the highly polarising nature of immigration debates, it is crucial for ministers to use precise and accurate statistics and to promptly correct any misleading claims.
IMF and OECD growth projections
In a television interview on Thursday, Housing Minister Matthew Pennycook claimed that both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) have stated that the UK will be “the fastest-growing European economy in the years ahead.”
However, this is not what the latest projections from these organisations indicate.
According to figures published by the IMF in January, the UK’s GDP is projected to grow by:
- 1.6% in 2025
- 1.5% in 2026
However, these projections show that both Spain (2.3% and 1.8%) and Poland (3.5% and 3.3%) are expected to have higher GDP growth in both years. Additionally, the Netherlands is projected to have similar growth to the UK in 2025 (1.6%) and higher growth in 2026 (1.8%).
Similarly, the OECD’s latest projections suggest that several European countries will have stronger growth than the UK, including:
- Spain (2.3% in 2025, 2% in 2026)
- Denmark (2.5% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026)
- Poland (3.4% in 2025, 3% in 2026)
The latest projections only extend to 2026, and no statements from the IMF or OECD support Mr Pennycook’s claim that the UK will be Europe’s fastest-growing economy beyond that point.
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It is possible that Mr Pennycook meant to say that the UK was projected to be the fastest-growing economy among European countries in the G7. The IMF and OECD both project that the UK will experience faster growth than France, Germany, and Italy—the other three European members of the G7.
Full Fact has reached out to Mr Pennycook and the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government for clarification on his statement.
Conclusion
This week’s fact-checking round-up highlights the importance of precise language when discussing major political and economic issues.
- Claims that the UK has committed £3 billion annually to Ukraine for 100 years are misleading. The commitment currently extends until 2030/31, with future funding dependent on circumstances.
- Immigration figures have been misrepresented, with Labour officials conflating net migration (906,000) with total immigration (1.3 million).
- The UK is not projected to be the fastest-growing European economy, though it is expected to outpace other European G7 members like Germany, France, and Italy.
With the political landscape constantly shifting, fact-checking remains essential in holding leaders accountable for their statements and ensuring public debate is based on accurate information.
