Nigel Farage’s reform UK overtakes tories in london as labour slumps, shock poll reveals
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has overtaken the conservative party in London for the first time, as a shock new poll reveals a dramatic shake-up of the capital’s political landscape. The survey, conducted by find out now, shows reform surging to 19 per cent support among londoners, ahead of the conservatives on 17 per cent, down three points since the last general election.
The findings mark a significant moment for reform UK, as it overtakes the tories in one of the country’s most traditionally progressive and diverse regions. Despite the upheaval, Labour remains in the lead with 30 per cent of the vote, though the party has seen its support plummet by a striking 13 points since july of last year.
Both the liberal democrats and greens appear to have capitalised on the backlash against the government and growing dissatisfaction with Labour. The lib dems have climbed to 16 per cent, up five points, while the greens also sit at 15 per cent, similarly up five points, according to the poll commissioned by Reform UK.
Reacting to the results, Mr Farage heralded the poll as a sign of reform’s growing traction across the country, stating: “This new London polling is strong for Reform and it’s before we have even got going. Even in our least advanced region we are ahead of a dying conservative party.”
The data suggests that reform’s rise has been driven in part by disaffected conservative voters. A quarter of reform’s current supporters in London backed the conservatives at the last general Election, while only five per cent previously voted for labour.
Meanwhile, the poll indicates a degree of Labour voter leakage to other progressive parties. Twelve per cent of green supporters and nine per cent of liberal democrat backers in london had previously voted labour.
Though the next general election is likely not to take place until 2029, a significant 32 per cent of Londoners told pollsters they are still undecided on how they would vote. The survey, which sought to ‘squeeze’ these undecided voters into declaring a preference, nonetheless represents another damaging blow to the tories, and particularly to their London leader, Kemi Badenoch, in their fight to remain one of Britain’s two main political forces.
Labour would still retain an advantage in the 2028 London mayoral election under these figures, with 33 per cent support, compared to 20 per cent each for Reform and the conservatives. The greens are currently on 13 per cent, while the liberal democrats trail at 10 per cent.
Reform UK also stands to make gains in the London assembly, potentially increasing its members from one to five. Alex Wilson, Reform UK Assembly member, said: “This shows real momentum following reform UK’s seismic election results on 1st may.”
More Read
The poll further highlights that reform’s rise in London is being driven overwhelmingly by older voters. Some 35 per cent of Londoners aged between 65 and 74 say they would vote for reform in the next general election, while the figure rises to 33 per cent for those aged 75 and over. By contrast, only six per cent of those aged 18 to 29 would consider voting for the party.
There is also a notable gender divide, with 21 per cent of male londoners backing reform, compared to just 16 per cent of women.
The conservatives now hold only nine seats across London and have none remaining in central London. The poll suggests that Julia Lopez in hornchurch and upminster could be particularly vulnerable to a Reform surge, having polled 15,260 votes at the last election against Reform’s Nick Palmer on 13,317.
Andrew Rosindell in Romford may also face a stiff challenge, with labour and reform both within striking distance of his 15,339 votes.
Other key tory figures, including Chris Philp in Croydon South and Peter Fortune in bromley and Biggin Hill, may also see their seats fall to labour if reform continues to eat into the conservative vote.
