A recent claim by the Conservative Party that “2 million immigrants could get British Citizenship next year” has raised eyebrows and drawn scrutiny over its accuracy. The figure appears to be a misrepresentation of data found in a report by the Centre for Policy Studies (CPS), a think tank that analysed long-term immigration trends.
On May 15, the Conservative Party posted across several social media platforms a message that read: “2 Million Immigrants. That’s how many people could get British Citizenship next year.” The accompanying video featured cabinet minister Kemi Badenoch, stating that these two million individuals could claim citizenship “from next year”. However, a close inspection of the original source suggests the party’s interpretation is misleading.
The CPS report in question does not refer to citizenship, but rather to Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) – a legal status granting permanent residence in the UK. Individuals granted ILR can live, work, and study in the UK without time restrictions. While ILR is a prerequisite to applying for citizenship, it does not equate to automatic or immediate eligibility for it.
The origins of the “2 million” figure
The CPS based its analysis on long-term visas issued between January 2021 and June 2024. From this pool of approximately 3.8 million visas, the think tank identified about 1.7 million people whose visa types would make them eligible for ILR within five years. An additional estimated 289,000 individuals, primarily international students, were expected to switch from non-eligible to eligible visas, bringing the total to roughly 2 million potential ILR applicants between January 2026 and June 2029.
However, these projections are spread across 3.5 years, not a single calendar year. Furthermore, the number of people likely to actually receive ILR during that period is significantly lower.
Adjusted estimates
After accounting for those who may leave the UK, not apply, or otherwise not qualify, the CPS projected that 686,000 individuals from this cohort would go on to secure ILR between 2026 and mid-2029. A further 115,000 could reach this milestone by 2040. Thus, the total number of likely ILR recipients from the 2021–2024 cohort is 801,000, still well below the two million headline figure.
Importantly, even if someone obtains ILR in 2026, they must wait an additional 12 months before they can apply for British citizenship. This means the earliest point at which the majority of these individuals could start to become citizens would be 2027 or later, not “next year” as claimed.
Political spin or misunderstanding?
The discrepancy between the claim and the data has drawn criticism. By conflating the number of people eligible for ILR with the number of individuals who could become citizens, and by compressing a multi-year projection into a single year, the claim gives a distorted impression of the reality.
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The CPS itself acknowledges that its assumptions are based on past trends and that outcomes may vary depending on policy changes, individual circumstances, and future visa switching behaviours. Its modelling includes both a “baseline” and a “new paradigm” scenario, the latter of which assumes a higher-than-usual retention and settlement rate. Even under this more optimistic forecast, no more than 1.2 million would gain ILR – and not all of these would proceed to citizenship.
Conclusion
The Conservative Party’s claim that two million migrants could gain British citizenship “next year” is not supported by the evidence. The report it refers to estimates that a maximum of 686,000 individuals could gain ILR between 2026 and 2029 – with citizenship eligibility arriving at least a year later.
Misrepresenting these figures risks inflaming public debate around immigration based on inaccurate and exaggerated assertions. A more responsible approach would be to present the data transparently, allowing voters to form opinions based on facts rather than political rhetoric.
