Scotland’s First Minister, John Swinney, has warned that US-imposed tariffs risk pushing the UK—and by extension, Scotland—into recession, urging prompt action from the Scottish Government to mitigate the threat.
Speaking at a press conference on Monday, Mr Swinney highlighted the economic risks of recent decisions taken by the US administration under President Trump, including a 10% reciprocal tariff on all UK exports and a separate 25% global levy on car exports. Though a 90-day delay has been granted for the full implementation, Swinney warned that the impact could still be severe.
Asked directly whether a recession was likely within the next 12 months, Mr Swinney said:
“The honest answer to that is that I don’t know. But I think there’s a risk of it and that’s why I’m setting out the steps that I’m taking today. I want to make sure we’re as front-footed as we can be to resist that eventuality.”
He acknowledged that a downturn was “more likely” than before the tariff announcements were made but insisted that the Scottish Government had a duty to prepare accordingly. Despite the potential upheaval, the First Minister argued that this uncertainty strengthened the case for Scottish independence, rather than weakened it.
“I believe the time is right for that (independence), because it is so important that we have the economic scope and powers to act in the interest of the people of Scotland,” Swinney said, noting that independence could enable closer ties with the European Union and broader economic autonomy.
In a move to address the growing challenges, Swinney announced that the Government would bring forward its legislative agenda by several months. The new Programme for Government, typically outlined after the summer recess, will now be presented to Holyrood on 6 May.
“There is a need to challenge ourselves on policy to make sure the policy interventions that we take are commensurate with the scale of the challenges that we now face,” the First Minister stated.
“It will focus on delivering for the people of Scotland and it will focus on delivering hope for the people of Scotland.”
Swinney dismissed concerns that his new proposals would require a major overhaul of the budget, insisting there was still unallocated funding available to support additional initiatives.
Criticism from Opposition
However, opposition parties were quick to condemn the First Minister’s renewed independence push amid economic uncertainty.
Scottish Conservative finance spokesperson Craig Hoy accused Mr Swinney of playing political games during a volatile period for global markets.
“Tearing Scotland out of the UK would be an act of economic self-harm at any time, but doing so now, when the world economy is facing extreme pressure, would be utterly reckless,” he said.
Scottish Green co-leader Lorna Slater responded more favourably, calling for climate priorities to be central in the upcoming legislative plans.
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“With bills soaring and stretching households and families to their limits, it is vital that we move away from fossil fuels and support people in making green choices,” she said.
“That means acting to cut the eye-watering prices people are being forced to pay for public transport and providing far more support for green energy and insulating homes.”
Meanwhile, Scottish Labour finance spokesperson Michael Marra criticised Swinney’s call for Chancellor Rachel Reeves to abandon her fiscal rules, warning that such a move could lead to further instability.
“An end to any kind of fiscal rule promises economic chaos and vast interest rate rises hitting growth and hammering mortgage rates,” he said.
Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Alex Cole-Hamilton offered a blunt rebuke, stating:
“People won’t believe that another year will see the SNP succeed where they’ve failed for so long. They’ve been promising jam tomorrow since 2007.”
With the risk of economic downturn looming and political divisions deepening, Scotland’s path forward remains as contentious as ever. But for Swinney, the message is clear: recession may be looming, but so too is the opportunity for fundamental change.
