Sri Lanka’s Election Signals India’s Diminishing Influence in the Region
Sri Lanka has recently elected Anura Kumara Dissanayake as its new president, marking a significant shift in the country’s political landscape. Dissanayake, a nationalist outsider and leader of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), emerged victorious in a fiercely contested election against two established centrist politicians. This victory highlights the resilience of Sri Lanka’s democracy, particularly in the wake of widespread protests that led to the resignation of former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe two years prior.
However, for India, this development is emblematic of a broader and troubling trend in South Asia, where its influence appears to be waning. Dissanayake’s party has historical ties to anti-India sentiments, having gained notoriety in the 1980s for its opposition to Indian involvement in Sri Lanka. While Dissanayake has made attempts to mend relations with India, including a visit earlier this year, many in New Delhi view him as a less favorable leader compared to Wickremesinghe, who had fostered closer ties with India and remained wary of China’s growing influence in the region.
A Series of Political Transitions
The situation in Sri Lanka is not isolated; it reflects a series of political shifts throughout South Asia that have been unfavorable for India. Recently, Bangladesh saw the ousting of long-serving Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who sought refuge in India. In Nepal, the return of K.P. Sharma Oli, a leader with strong ties to Beijing, has raised concerns for Indian policymakers. Furthermore, the Maldives elected Mohamed Muizzu, who campaigned on an “India out” platform, further signaling a shift away from New Delhi.
As of now, India finds itself in a precarious position with most of its neighbors, with Bhutan being the only reliable ally. The tiny Himalayan kingdom continues to maintain close cooperation with India regarding its security and foreign policy. Meanwhile, New Delhi’s relationships with Kathmandu, Dhaka, and Colombo have become increasingly tenuous.
The Role of Indian Foreign Policy
The root causes of these political transitions are complex, with internal dynamics playing a significant role. However, India’s foreign policy approach has not helped matters. While Indians often tout their country as the world’s largest democracy, neighboring nations express frustration that New Delhi does not consistently promote democratic values in the region.
There is a growing sentiment among Indian commentators that the country’s foreign policy has been successful in “shaping democratic verdicts” in its neighborhood. Yet, such an approach often leads to overlooking the democratic deficits prevalent in these nations. For example, the political climate in Bangladesh deteriorated significantly following elections that were widely criticized for lacking fairness, yet India appeared to ignore these concerns, only to be caught off guard when Hasina’s popularity plummeted.
Similarly, India’s relationship with Myanmar’s military junta, which has faced international condemnation, might soon backfire. While Indian officials justified their collaboration with the junta as necessary for managing border security, the rise of anti-government rebels has complicated this stance.
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A Missed Opportunity for Resetting Relations
When Prime Minister Narendra Modi first took office in 2014, he invited leaders from neighboring countries to his swearing-in ceremony, signaling a desire to reset relations and foster partnerships based on mutual respect and economic integration. However, in the years that followed, diplomatic control shifted towards a security-focused approach, which has alienated significant segments of the electorate in these countries.
India’s soft power, exemplified by its vibrant film and media industry, could have been a valuable asset in enhancing its influence. Yet, recent actions—such as Bollywood stars withdrawing from vacationing in the Maldives following the election—demonstrate how this influence can also be detrimental.
Lessons from China
India would do well to analyze China’s approach to its neighbors. Economic integration is crucial; as the region’s largest market, India must position itself as a source of prosperity for its smaller neighbors. Moreover, expecting these countries to subordinate their interests to Indian demands is a flawed strategy.
As India continues to rise as a regional power, it must remain attuned to the aspirations and sentiments of its neighbors. Ignoring these realities could result in further alienation, diminishing India’s stature in South Asia and beyond. The election in Sri Lanka serves as a stark reminder of the complexities and challenges facing Indian diplomacy in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.
