Cairo – Egypt and Somalia are set to hold high-level talks in Cairo this weekend, with Egypt poised to propose a joint leadership role in the upcoming African Union (AU) mission in Somalia. Sources reveal that the discussions will centre on Egypt’s ambitions to expand its strategic influence in the region while addressing the ongoing threat posed by the Al Qaeda-linked Al Shabab group.
Strengthening Egypt-Somalia cooperation
Egypt has expressed its desire to collaborate closely with Somalia to steer the newly authorised African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). This mission, sanctioned by the United Nations Security Council, is set to replace the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), which ended on 31 December.
Keen to assert its presence in the Horn of Africa, Egypt views participation in AUSSOM as a key opportunity to counterbalance Ethiopia’s influence. The two nations have been locked in a long-standing dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a project that Egypt perceives as a critical threat to its water security.
Military presence and strategic expansion
Under a comprehensive military agreement signed last year, Egypt already maintains a contingent of troops in Somalia. This force, primarily composed of elite units, provides counterterrorism training to Somali security forces, secures key state infrastructure, and ensures the safety of government officials. Additionally, Egypt has supplied arms and shared intelligence with Somalia, further solidifying their military partnership.
Egypt’s involvement in AUSSOM aligns with its broader strategy of bolstering its regional footprint. The country has forged military cooperation agreements with several Nile Basin states, including Kenya, Uganda, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, while also maintaining access to military facilities in Eritrea and Djibouti.
Challenges with Ethiopia
Tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia flared last year when Addis Ababa signed a maritime deal with Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia, to gain access to the Red Sea. Somalia condemned the agreement as a violation of its sovereignty and declared that Ethiopian troops would not be welcome in AUSSOM.
Although Turkish mediation has eased some of the tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia, concrete resolutions remain elusive. With Ethiopia already fielding approximately 10,000 troops in Somalia, questions linger over the extent of its role in the new mission. Somali officials have hinted that Egypt’s contingent, expected to constitute 25% of AUSSOM’s 11,000 troops, may replace Ethiopian forces.
Somali State Minister for Foreign Affairs Ali Balcad recently expressed uncertainty over Ethiopia’s future involvement in Somalia, raising concerns about its effectiveness in combating Al Shabab.
Diplomatic and military talks in Cairo
Egyptian Defence Minister Gen Abdel Meguid Saqr met with his Somali counterpart, Abdul Qader Mohammed Nour, in Cairo on Thursday. According to an Egyptian military statement, the Somali minister welcomed Egypt’s participation in AUSSOM and highlighted the growing military cooperation between the two nations.
The talks are expected to pave the way for Egypt to outline its vision for the AU mission, including its command structure and operational plans. A source familiar with the discussions noted that Egypt aims to share leadership responsibilities with Somalia, leveraging its military agreement to gain a strategic advantage.
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Meanwhile, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty is scheduled to meet separately with his counterparts from Somalia and Eritrea. The three ministers will later convene a meeting of the Egypt-Somalia-Eritrea Cooperation Council to discuss further collaboration in the region.
The broader context of Egypt’s efforts
Egypt’s ambitions in Somalia are closely tied to its ongoing struggle with Ethiopia over the Nile. As one of the driest nations on Earth, Egypt depends on the Nile for nearly all its freshwater needs, making the GERD project an existential issue.
More than a decade of negotiations with Ethiopia have failed to produce a binding agreement on the dam’s operation and filling. Ethiopian officials maintain that the project is essential for their nation’s development and argue that it poses no threat to Egypt’s water security.
President Abdel Fattah El Sisi has repeatedly underscored the Nile’s significance, calling it “the chief source of life” for Egypt’s 107 million people.
Looking ahead
As Egypt and Somalia prepare to enhance their partnership, the proposed joint leadership of AUSSOM could mark a significant shift in the Horn of Africa’s geopolitical dynamics. By deepening its involvement in Somalia, Egypt seeks not only to combat the Al Shabab threat but also to counter Ethiopia’s influence and reinforce its standing in Africa.
The weekend’s discussions in Cairo are likely to shape the future of the AU mission and highlight the critical role Egypt aims to play in ensuring stability and security in the region.
