MPs have been told they must wait until the spring for a detailed spending plan to meet the Government’s “cast-iron commitment” to increase defence expenditure to 2.5% of GDP, sparking criticism from across the political spectrum.
Defence Minister Luke Pollard declined to confirm whether the target would be achieved by 2030, amid reports suggesting the timeline may be pushed back. Concerns over the fiscal feasibility of hitting the goal within five years, especially with a general election on the horizon, have fuelled doubts.
A senior Government source, speaking to The Times, warned that achieving the 2.5% target by 2030 would necessitate “deeper cuts in the run-up to the election,” labelling such plans a “non-starter.”
Opposition pressures government
Shadow Defence Secretary James Cartlidge called on Mr Pollard to “disown such talk” and urgently clarify the Government’s position, citing escalating threats from Russia as a pressing reason to accelerate defence spending.
“Despite all of the evidence before our eyes of the growing threat, we learned this weekend from multiple sources that spending 2.5% will be delayed beyond 2030. Can the minister first disown such talk, but specifically confirm we will hit 2.5% this Parliament?” Mr Cartlidge asked during a Commons debate.
Mr Pollard, however, avoided giving a definitive timeline, stating: “This Government has a cast-iron commitment to spending 2.5% of GDP on defence. At our first budget, we announced an extra £3 billion on defence spending for the next financial year.”
Liberal Democrat Defence Spokeswoman Helen Maguire was also critical, warning that “promises without a clear path are hollow.” She urged the Government to present a credible and detailed plan for achieving the 2.5% target by Easter.
“At a time when Europe faces its gravest security crisis in decades, this is unacceptable,” she said.
Historical context and political sparring
Mr Pollard defended the Government’s record, pointing to recent increases in defence funding while reminding critics of cuts made under previous administrations.
“We will set out a path to spending 2.5% of GDP on defence in the spring,” he reiterated. “When her party [the Liberal Democrats] was in Government, instead of increasing defence spending by £3 billion as Labour has done, they cut defence spending by £2 billion and slashed it by 20% across the Parliament.”
Ms Maguire’s criticisms were echoed by SNP MP Dave Doogan, who questioned whether the timeline for the 2.5% target would be dictated by the Defence Secretary, John Healey, or the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves.
“It’s because of the realisation or suspicion that the arbiter of when and how 2.5% is realised is not the Secretary of State for Defence but the Chancellor,” Mr Doogan said. “And this is a Chancellor who scarcely understands the fundamentals of economics, much less the fundamentals of defence and the threat environment these isles are facing.”
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Mr Pollard deflected these comments, stating that full details on the timeline and pathway to the spending target would be announced as part of the strategic defence review in the spring.
The path ahead
The ambiguity surrounding the timeline for increased defence spending has drawn criticism, even from within Conservative ranks. Mark Pritchard, Tory MP for The Wrekin, sought clarification on the exact timing of the spring announcement, asking whether the decision would come before the end of astronomical spring on June 21 or meteorological spring on May 31.
“Is the pathway short or long?” Mr Pritchard pressed.
In response, Mr Pollard assured MPs that the review and spending plans would be revealed in the spring but provided no further specifics.
The UK spent 2.3% of its GDP on defence in 2024, according to NATO estimates. While this places the UK above the alliance’s baseline target of 2%, critics argue that current spending levels are insufficient to address the security challenges posed by Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, instability in the Middle East, and the strategic threats from China.
Calls for clarity
The delay in providing a clear timeline has frustrated MPs across party lines. Critics fear that continued ambiguity undermines the Government’s credibility and its ability to respond effectively to evolving security threats.
As the Government prepares to unveil its strategic defence review, pressure will remain high for a comprehensive and actionable plan. For now, however, questions about the path to 2.5% defence spending—and the political will to meet it—remain unanswered.
