The Labour Party’s landslide general election victory on 4 July has been compared to historic wins under Tony Blair in 1997 and Clement Attlee in 1945. However, Keir Starmer’s triumph lacked the resounding support of his predecessors, with a significantly smaller vote share and a subdued atmosphere among supporters. Unlike previous euphoric victories, Labour’s success this time was more a product of widespread dissatisfaction with 14 years of Conservative rule rather than a wholesale endorsement of Starmer’s policies.
The erosion of Tory dominance was bolstered by factors such as the Reform Party, led by Nigel Farage, siphoning votes from the Conservatives, the SNP’s collapse in Scotland, and historically low voter turnout. Yet, Labour’s gains were tempered by an exodus of voters discontent with its stance on Israel’s assault on Gaza, a topic that resonated deeply among left-leaning voters and went far beyond sectarian lines.
The rise of independent candidates campaigning on a pro-Gaza platform was a defining feature of this election. Five such candidates were elected, a record number, and others came close, notably Leanne Mohamad in Ilford North, who dramatically reduced Health Secretary Wes Streeting’s majority. In 57 constituencies, Labour’s main challengers were independents, Greens, or Workers Party candidates. The Green Party’s surge was particularly striking, as it secured second place in 40 Labour-held seats, up from just three in 2019.
The Gaza issue is just one of several factors challenging Starmer’s leadership. Traditional Labour supporters have expressed disillusionment with the party’s perceived drift towards the political centre-right and its embrace of corporate interests. Starmer’s approach risks alienating core Labour voters, leaving them feeling disenfranchised and unrepresented.
However, Labour’s position on Gaza remains a critical challenge. The conflict’s devastating toll, with over 37,000 Palestinians killed, 10,000 missing, and 70,000 wounded, has been exacerbated by Israel’s use of the Dahiya doctrine, which targets civilian populations to defeat Hamas. A report in The Lancet suggests the broader death toll, including indirect causes such as disease and malnutrition, could reach 186,000.
Despite intermittent talks, the war shows no signs of abating. Israel’s leadership appears committed to its military objectives, with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu aligning his timeline with the US presidential election, banking on Donald Trump’s political survival. Concurrently, Israel’s continued annexation efforts in the West Bank underscore its broader ambitions for permanent control of Palestinian territories.
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Public opinion in the UK is shifting in response to the scale of the devastation in Gaza. This change extends well beyond Muslim communities, with many Britons increasingly critical of Israel’s actions. High-profile investigations, such as those by journalist Chris McGreal, have highlighted Israel’s use of fragmentation artillery in urban areas, including the highly lethal M339 tank shell, which inflicts devastating injuries on civilians, particularly children. These revelations fuel calls for international legal action against Netanyahu’s government.
Starmer faces mounting scrutiny over the UK’s close ties with Israel. Investigative reporting, particularly by Declassified UK, has exposed significant connections, including the strategic role of RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus and substantial financial contributions from the Israeli lobby to British Cabinet ministers. Without a substantive policy shift on Israel, Starmer’s premiership may continue to be haunted by the Gaza issue, eroding Labour’s credibility among its base.
Labour’s parliamentary majority, while a historic achievement, may not provide the stability Starmer hopes for. The party’s perceived rightward shift and its stance on Gaza threaten to alienate large swathes of its traditional support base, casting a long shadow over Starmer’s leadership and the future of the Labour Party.
