The Belarusian opposition’s recent call for the country to join the European Union has sparked criticism, with some claiming it diverges from the desires of people within Belarus. However, such criticism appears misguided.
In a recent article for openDemocracy, Paul Hansbury suggested that Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s pro-EU stance might alienate her from the Belarusian public. While his concerns about maintaining unity among Belarus’s democratic forces are valid, his conclusion misses a crucial point: the opposition’s shared primary goal is the removal of Alexander Lukashenka and the establishment of a democratic Belarus.
Russia’s influence and the EU’s role
One significant obstacle to Belarus’s democratic aspirations is Russia’s persistent interference. The Kremlin has propped up Lukashenka’s regime, notably during the 2020 post-election protests, and continues to collaborate with him to further its objectives in Ukraine. To weaken Lukashenka’s grip on power, it is essential to diminish Moscow’s leverage in Belarus.
Tsikhanouskaya’s pro-European agenda can play a pivotal role here. Strengthened ties with the EU would unite democratic Belarus and Ukraine in opposing autocratic regimes. This alignment increases the likelihood of a democratic transition in Belarus. Rather than dividing Lukashenka’s opponents, as some critics suggest, the EU declaration has the potential to consolidate opposition forces, both within and outside Belarus.
Public opinion and information access
Another critique is that Tsikhanouskaya’s pro-EU aspirations conflict with Belarusian public opinion. However, this argument is flawed due to the limitations of opinion polling in authoritarian contexts like Belarus. Under a regime characterized by repression and propaganda, citizens are often reluctant to express genuine views, leading to skewed poll results.
The state-controlled media landscape exacerbates this issue, with limited access to independent news sources and widespread dissemination of misinformation. Moreover, the Chatham House polls frequently cited are conducted online, excluding significant segments of the population and resulting in sample bias.
Belarusians’ geopolitical preferences could shift if they gain greater access to unbiased information and opportunities to interact with the EU through travel, work, or education. Tsikhanouskaya’s team should focus on strategies to provide Belarusians with reliable insights into the EU and Russia, enabling them to make informed decisions about the nation’s future.
A logical evolution of policy
Critics, including Hansbury, have also argued that Tsikhanouskaya’s current pro-European stance contradicts her earlier neutrality. This claim overlooks the context of her political evolution.
During the 2020 elections, Tsikhanouskaya’s platform centred on democratic reforms rather than geopolitics. Her lack of prior political experience and her entry into the race to support her detained husband shaped a campaign focused on domestic change. At that time, cautious messaging about Russia was prudent, given the regime’s proximity to the Kremlin.
However, Tsikhanouskaya’s strong condemnation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 underscores her evolving perspective. Her firm anti-Russian stance aligns with the broader shift in EU-Russia relations, reflecting a natural progression rather than inconsistency.
EU engagement as a unifying force
Hansbury’s suggestion that the EU could lose focus on Belarus by supporting the opposition’s EU aspirations is unfounded. On the contrary, backing Tsikhanouskaya’s vision would strengthen the EU’s role in bridging the divide between Belarusians inside the country and those in exile.
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Increased cooperation between the EU and Belarusian democratic forces could bolster efforts to release political prisoners, a vital step in maintaining connections with citizens. Sanctions against Lukashenka’s regime, paired with advocacy by Belarusian opposition leaders, would enhance this strategy.
Additionally, Tsikhanouskaya’s pro-European agenda envisions reforms that include visa-free travel, cultural and educational exchanges, and special EU programmes for Belarusian students. These measures would foster stronger ties with the EU and provide Belarusians with opportunities to experience its benefits directly.
A democratic Belarus within reach
Tsikhanouskaya’s annual reports highlight her team’s efforts to maintain links with Belarusians, including initiatives that cannot be disclosed for security reasons. Deeper EU collaboration could amplify these efforts, solidifying connections between democratic forces and the Belarusian populace.
Ultimately, stronger EU ties would bolster the Belarusian opposition’s capacity to counter Russia’s influence, accelerating the path to democracy. By the time Belarus achieves political transformation, the opposition, with EU support, would be ready to lead the country into a democratic future.
A democratic Belarus aligned with the EU would represent a significant victory for its people, offering a hopeful alternative to the oppressive Lukashenka regime.
