As President-elect Donald Trump gears up for his second term in office, his ‘America First’ approach is expected to significantly impact US-India relations. Trump’s pragmatic, results-oriented foreign policy, focused on prioritising American interests, aligns well with India’s aspirations under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘Viksit Bharat’ (Developed India) vision. Both leaders are poised to further strengthen the diplomatic and economic ties between their countries.
Florida Senator Marco Rubio, in his confirmation hearings, made it clear that the incoming administration would place American interests above all else, redefining foreign policy. He argued that prioritising core national interests isn’t isolationism but simply a practical approach to foreign relations. The fundamental questions guiding this policy will focus on how any decision impacts America’s security, strength, and prosperity.
India’s vision, embodied in ‘Viksit Bharat’, aims to transform the nation into a developed economy by 2047, marking the centenary of its independence. As both leaders focus on growth and national interest, it is likely that US-India relations will take a more strategic turn under Trump’s second term.
The India-US relationship has undergone a remarkable transformation in recent years. Under Trump’s first term, numerous milestones were achieved in areas such as defence, trade, and security. Concrete steps forward included the tri-service ‘Tiger Triumph’ exercise, agreements on defence interoperability, and easing of defence export controls, moving India to Tier 1 in the US Department of Commerce’s Strategic Trade Authorization licensing list.
Trump’s administration also recognised the importance of the Indian Ocean by renaming the US-Pacific command to the Indo-Pacific command and revitalising the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) to ensure peace and stability in the region. These shifts demonstrated the growing strategic partnership between the two nations, especially with regard to countering China’s rising influence.
The four key pillars that have defined US-India relations in the past decade are the shared democratic values of both nations, India’s rise in Southeast Asia as a counterbalance to China, India’s potential as a global growth engine, and the vibrant people-to-people connections. These shared values are encapsulated by the US State Department, which highlights India’s commitment to democracy and the rules-based international system.
Both countries increasingly view their bilateral relationship as a stabilising force in the Indo-Pacific region. India’s growing economic stature, with its GDP expected to reach $7 trillion by 2030, positions it as a key player in global trade. The Indian-American community, now numbering over 4 million, further strengthens the cultural and economic bond between the two nations. Public opinion surveys, such as Gallup’s annual world affairs survey, consistently show favourable views of India among Americans, with 77 percent of Americans expressing positive opinions in 2022.
However, the US-India relationship is not without its challenges. Disagreements persist on issues like trade practices, S-400 missile defence systems, and India’s stance on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. While India has maintained a neutral position on the Ukraine conflict, its alignment with Trump’s calls for diplomacy over military confrontation could lead to closer cooperation on international issues such as Ukraine, Iran, and the Middle East.
Bilateral trade between the US and India has grown substantially, reaching $191 billion in 2022, making India the ninth-largest trading partner of the US. However, the trade deficit, with the US importing more from India than it exports, remains a contentious issue. Trump’s administration had previously criticised India’s tariff policies, but there is potential for mutual understanding and a more transactional approach to resolve these concerns.
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India’s growing demand for energy, especially petroleum, offers new opportunities for US firms. With India’s increasing import of LNG, energy cooperation is expected to become a significant area of engagement. Similarly, sectors such as emerging technologies, pharmaceuticals, and healthcare could witness closer collaboration.
Despite some differences, the two countries share a common vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific, underpinned by the Quad. As both nations continue to confront China’s growing influence, the strategic alliance between the US and India will be crucial in shaping the region’s future.
Trump’s second term promises to offer a fresh perspective on US-India relations. His deal-making approach and focus on achieving tangible results will create new opportunities for both nations to collaborate in ways that benefit their respective national interests. With Modi and Trump’s strong personal rapport, the India-US partnership looks set to flourish in the coming years, with the potential for deeper economic, strategic, and diplomatic cooperation.
As India continues its trajectory towards becoming a global power, and the US reinforces its leadership in international affairs, their combined efforts under the frameworks of ‘America First’ and ‘Viksit Bharat’ can ensure a future of mutual prosperity and security. As external affairs minister S. Jaishankar aptly put it, the structural soundness of the India-US relationship remains resilient to political fluctuations, promising a bright future for bilateral ties.
